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NFL MVP Odds: Allen Distancing Field; Mahomes Fading, Hurts Now 2nd Betting Choice

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Oct 18, 2022 · 7:26 AM PDT

NFL MVP odds
Oct 16, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
  • Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is beginning to pull away in the NFL MVP odds
  • Allen’s betting line shortened to +125 following Sunday’s win at Kansas City
  • Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (+500) is now the second choice in this betting market

Josh Allen emphatically stated his case on Sunday in Kansas City, and the outcome is showing in the NFL MVP odds. Leading the 5-1 Buffalo Bills to a 24-20 road victory over the Chiefs, not only did the Bills beat their chief rivals for AFC supremacy, Buffalo quarterback Allen also distanced himself from Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes in the NFL MVP race.

Already the favored betting choice, Allen’s line shortened to +125. Meanwhile, Mahomes lengthened to +550 and in fact fell to third in this betting market. Jalen Hurts, QB of the 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, is now the second betting choice at +500. Beyond them, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+850) is the only other player with odds shorter than +1800.

2022 NFL MVP Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Josh Allen (Bills) +125
Jalen Hurts (Eagles) +500
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) +550
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) +850
Justin Herbert (Chargers) +1800
Joe Burrow (Bengals) +3000
Kirk Cousins (Vikings) +4000
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) +5000
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) +5000
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) +8000
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) +8000
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) +8000
Cooper Kupp (Rams) +8000
Russell Wilson (Broncos) +10000
Derrick Henry (Titans) +10000
Saquon Barkley (Giants) +10000
Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers) +10000
Micah Parsons (Cowboys) +12500
Stefon Diggs (Bills) +15000
Daniel Jones (Giants) +15000
Ryan Tannehill (Titans) +15000

Odds as of October 17 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code before wagering on the NFL this week

It’s Allen, Hurts and Mahomes in the top three of the NFL MVP odds in the table above after Week 6.

 

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When the NFL MVP future book was first released in February at NFL betting sites, Mahomes and two-time reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers were the co-favorites.

Allen, Bills Flexing Muscles

In a battle of top contenders in the AFC Championship odds, Allen and the Bills got the better of Mahomes and the Chiefs. Not surprisingly, there was significant impact in the NFL MVP betting lines due to this outcome.

Allen’s line as favorite shortened from +200 to +125 as he beat Mahomes for the second time in five tries. Meanwhile, losing his second game of the season, Mahomes saw his line lengthen from +450 to +550. He was also dropping into third in this betting market for the first time since the NFL MVP future book opened.

In the victory over the Chiefs, Allen threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns. His passer rating was 117.6.

Mahomes threw for 338 yards and two TDs, but he was also picked off twice. His passer rating was a pedestrian 85.2.

Hurts Conquers Cowboys

The Eagles are 6-0 for the first time since 2004 after beating the 4-2 Cowboys 26-17. Hurts wasn’t spectacular in terms of numbers, passing for just 155 yards. But after Dallas reduced Philadelphia’s 20-0 advantage to 20-17, Hurts drove the Eagles downfield, hitting DeVonta Smith for a 7-yard TD pass.

Hurts also utilized his legs to twice ramble for first downs on third-down plays. Philadelphia has converted 10-of-14 fourth-down plays this season.

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NFL MVP Movers and Shakers

There’s only been one player to three-peat as NFL MVP and it was a Green Bay Packers QB. But Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to be emulating Brett Favre, the man he replaced under center in Green Bay. In successive weeks the two-time reigning NFL MVP has lost games when the Packers were favored by 7 or more points. Rodgers saw his betting line jump from +3500 to +5000.

Three-time MVP Tom Brady of Tampa Bay slipped from +4000 to +5000 after losing at Pittsburgh. Justin Herbert of the Chargers (+1500 to +1800), Arizona’s Kyler Murray (+5000 to +8000) and Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence (+3500 to +6000) all were slipping further away from the prize.

On the other hand, Lousiana was good to Joe Burrow again. Following a victory at New Orleans Bengals QB and former LSU national champion Burrow saw his MVP odds shorten to +3000 from +3500.

Allen Holds Key to NFL MVP

Buffalo continues to hold forth as the favorite in the Super Bowl odds. And with the Bills firmly on top of the AFC, the MVP is Allen’s to lose.

Besides Mahomes and the Chiefs, he’s also beaten the reigning Super Bowl champion Rams, as well as Jackson and the Ravens this season. Allen has compiled in excess of 300 passing yards, along with multiple TD passes, in four of Buffalo’s last five games.

Allen is beginning to make the NFL MVP race look like Secretariat in the Belmont. He’s the horse to beat. So far, no one is coming close to challenging him.

 

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