Upcoming Match-ups
Tmrw
5
May
1:00 PM
ORL
CLE
+3.5
-3.5
195.5
Monday
6
May
7:30 PM
IND
NY
+6
-6
218
Tuesday
7
May
9:30 PM
DAL
OKC
+3
-3
216
Thursday
9
May
9:30 PM
DAL
OKC
+3
-3
214.5

NFL Week 9 ATS Picks: Can Rodgers and the Packers Keep Surging in the NFC?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 3:52 PM PDT

Aaron Jones celebrates touchdown
Packers' RB Aaron Jones leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns. Photo from @PFF_Packers (Twitter).
  • Rodgers, Packers try to move to 8-1 with win against Chargers
  • Can the Dolphins break through for their first win of the year?
  • ATS Week 8 Record: 2-2; Overall 2019 Record: 13-19

Another week, another split. While Tom Brady and Jared Goff took care of business, those pesky Raiders keep Jekyll and Hydeing us, while Drew Brees blew through the double-digit spread in blasting the Cardinals.

This week, we’re looking at two powherhouses trying to keep the beat going, and a pair of spreads that shine favorably on two teams that have a single win between them. No, seriously. Let’s go!

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers

Team Spread Odds
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-104)
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (-114)

*Odds from October 31

Analysis: The Pack have been powered by the Aarons.

The answer to how long it would take Aaron Rodgers to grasp an entire new offense after growing and flourishing under a Mike McCarthy scheme appears to be six weeks.

That’s because the past two weeks, the Packers’ pivot is again looking like the surgical maestro that’s torched defenses for the last decade-plus. He’s put up back-to-back 300+ yard passing games with at least three TD passes and no interceptions, and currently ranks second in the NFL with 2,324 passing yards on the season.

Meanwhile, Aaron Jones just put together the best all-around month by a Packers’ running back since the merger. Jones racked up over 250 rushing yards and 250 receiving yards in October, and he leads all running backs with eight rushing TDs on the season. He tallied seven catches for 159 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Kansas City last week, and he and fellow RB Jamaal Williams have become key dual-threat components of the offense.

I don’t know what to tell you about the Chargers. Phil Rivers is third in the league in passing yards, but the team has gone four straight games racking up less than 40 yards on the ground, a big reason OC Ken Whisenhunt was canned this week. It’s hard to predict just how they show up on Sunday, but in a home building that will serve more as a Green Bay crowd, trust the Pack to take care of business.

The pick: Packers -3.5 (-104)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks

Team Spread Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 (-109)
Seattle Seahawks -5 (-109)

Analysis: Imagine a bizarro world where Russell Wilson was quarterbacking Tampa Bay and Jameis Winston was the Seahawks’ QB: the current records of each team would travel with the quarterback to their locale, wouldn’t they? These are two talented, but fairly flawed teams, and their successes and failures are linked closely to the outputs of their starting quarterbacks.

Wilson has been on an MVP pace this year, still working with a patchwork offensive line, and a defense that is closer to complimentary than Legion of Boom legendary. He has thrown 17 touchdowns on the season to just one interception.

On the other end, Winston is coming off a two-game stretch where he’s turned the ball over 10 times, including a five-INT discombobulation against Carolina, and two more picks for good measure in Tennessee. These were both actually winnable games that he dragged for Ls.

Even if sack leader Shaq Barrett gets to Wilson, and Tampa’s league-leading rush defense stymies Chris Carson, and even if Mike Evans is still uncoverable like he was last week (198 receiving yards and two TD’s), Wilson will make plays and Winston won’t.

After watching San Francisco move to 8-0 on Thursday night, Wilson and the Hawks can’t afford to mess around.

The pick: Seahawks -5 (-109)

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Team Spread Odds
New York Jets -3 (-119)
Miami Dolphins +3 (+101)

Analysis: Fans of both teams don’t want to see their team win ,and fans of football don’t want to watch this game., which means this is for the bettors only! Sam Darnold’s Offensive Player of the Week award in Week 6 is looking more and more like Will Ferrell’s “I blacked out” debate scene in Old School, as he’s looked awful since.

The four interceptions in Week 7 against the historic Pats defense is acceptable, but the 218-yard, three-INT showing last week against the Jaguars was brutal.

Perhaps the corpse of Le’Veon Bell arises against the NFL’s 31st-ranked run defense, leaving Darnold to game-manage instead. Bell hasn’t come close to a 100-yard game this year (70 yards in Week 7 is his season-high), and is averaging a paltry 3.2 yards a tote.

Despite dropping to 0-7 with a loss in Pittsburgh, the Dolphins have looked fairly competent as of late. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a trick-or-treat pivot, but even a serviceable showing might be enough to be the best QB in this game. Receivers Preston Williams and Davante Parker should feast on the league’s 24th-ranked pass defense. Brace yourselves, Miami: you’re about to earn a W.

The pick: Dolphins +3 (+101)

Washington Redskins vs Buffalo Bills

Team Spread Odds
Washington Redskins +9.5 (-109)
Buffalo Bills -9.5 (-109)

Analysis: If you’re looking at records, the 5-2 Bills should be stomping out the ‘Skins and getting to 6-2 and remaining in prime position to take a wild card berth in the AFC. Washington has only one win on the season, against the Dolphins, no less, and, if Case Keenum doesn’t make it out of concussion protocol, will be starting super green rookie Dwayne Haskins against the third-ranked defense in the NFL.

But last week Philly showed the Bills D could be run on, as they surrendered a season-high 218 yards in the loss to the Eagles. Expect plenty of Adrian Peterson early, to try to take the pressure of Haskins and leave him in short down and distance situations.

Washington also has some nice pieces on defense, including a stout line that could cause problems for Josh Allen and a Bills offense coming off their worst showing of the year, tallying just 253 yards, and moving the chains for two first downs in their final six possessions of the game.

https://twitter.com/MichaelKistNFL/status/1188641485027196928

Allen’s underwhelming play is the reason Buffalo isn’t thought of highly as a playoff team, as their five wins have come against a slate of teams with a combined 7-31 record. In his last four starts, he’s thrown for less than 220 yards in each, and fewer than 170 yards in two.

Even though Washington has scored just 35 points in their last five games, they stick around in this one, while the Bills beat up another bottom-feeder.

The pick: Redskins +9.5 (-109)

Author Image