Packers Listed as Favorites to Win NFC North After Beating Bears in Week 1

• The Chicago Bears were the NFC North favorites before a Week 1 loss to the Green Bay Packers
• Is the Packer defense that good or is Mitchell Trubisky that bad?
• It’s only a matter of time until Aaron Rodgers gets rolling

Before the Green Bay Packers made third-year Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky look like a complete rookie in Week 1, Chicago was favored to win the 2019 NFC North title, sitting at +160 odds.

It was understandable. The Bears were coming off a 12-win season while every other team in the division failed to qualify for the playoffs. Chicago recorded a +138 point differential in 2018, over 100 points better than Minnesota, Green Bay, or Detroit.

But the Week 1 win for the Packers officially made Green Bay the favorites at +170.

NFC North Division Odds

*Odds as of 09/06/2019.

This isn’t a case of overreaction or recency bias. It’s a justifiable movement by oddsmakers.

The defense for the Bears was outstanding throughout the entire 2018 season. In a league that has gone to a more pass-friendly style, with even pedestrian quarterbacks routinely putting up monster stats, the Bears managed to hold opponents to just 17.6 points per game. They generated a stunning 36 turnovers, six more than any other team in the league.

But repeating that level of defensive efficiency and that many takeaways is tough year over year, even with Khalil Mack anchoring the unit.

Most who were high on the Bears figured that any defensive regression would be offset by improvements on the other side of the ball. Under the radar, Mitchell Trubisky was third in QBR last season, ahead of guys like Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and even Tom Brady. With this being Trubisky’s third year at the helm, he should be even better, right?

Not if Week 1 was a sign of things to come.

In the Bears’ opening game against the Packers, Trubisky was awful. He went 26-45 for just 226 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception.

The main reason the Packers' offense struggled tonight? This Bears defense is really fricken good. pic.twitter.com/fxZrJHXOvF

— Andy Herman (@AndyHermanNFL) September 6, 2019

The defense held up its side of the bargain as they held Aaron Rodgers to just 10 points. But it’s becoming painfully clear that the Bears may need to lean on their defense now more than ever.

Given what we saw from the Packers in Week 1, is there reason to have confidence in Green Bay?

Rodgers Finally Has A Defense

For as much hype as there was surrounding the Packers and their new offense with head coach Matt LaFleur, they only managed to put up 10 points. They weren’t impressive either running or throwing the ball. But let’s not forget, this is Aaron Rodgers we are talking about here. He’ll catch a rhythm soon and so will the offense.

What was  impressive on the Green Bay side was the defense.

They held Chicago, which ranked 10th in the league last season in points per game, to just a field goal, and their new acquisitions all contributed. Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith combined for 8 tackles to go along with 2.5 sacks. Not to be outdone, new safety Adrian Amos registered 5 tackles of his own and grabbed an important interception during the closing minutes of the game.

Fantastic 3rd down playcall from Pettine

Fantastic execution from the defense pic.twitter.com/lvYpg2stVY

— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) September 6, 2019

The fact that the new faces keyed the improved performance is reason to think Green Bay’s defense is actually better than last year, when it finished 30th in DVOA. With a one-game lead on the Bears and a huge road win already under their belt, the Packers are the best value in the updated NFL Divisional odds.