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69% of Bettors Picking Packers as 5-Point Dogs vs Vikings on MNF Week 16

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 9:46 AM PDT

Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers shaking hands
Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers will square off Monday Night as the Packers visit the Vikings. Photo from @Climb_ThePocket (Twitter).
  • Packers can clinch NFC North crown with a win over Vikings on MNF
  • Vikings need to win out and get help to claim division title
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

With a win, the Green Bay Packers (11-3, 4-2 away) can clinch the NFC North Division crown, but they’ll have to do it in a building they’ve yet to win in, as they visit the Minnesota Vikings (10-4, 6-0 home), who have yet to lose at US Bank Stadium so far this season. Kickoff for this tilt goes at 8:15pm ET.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Odds

Team Moneyline Spread  Total
Green Bay Packers +199 +5.0 (-110) Over 47.0 (-112)
Minnesota Vikings -240 -5.0 (-110) Under 47.0 (-110)

*Odds taken December 22

The Packers vs Vikings odds tell us the sportsbooks aren’t so impressed with Green Bay’s 11-3 mark, which has them on the inside track to locking down a no. 2 seed in the NFC.  But it’s another story with the betting public as books are reporting that 62% of is siding with the visiting Pack, and 69% of all betting money too.

The sharps are even more dialed in, with 76% of all sharp money siding with Aaron Rodgers and company. Is this the way you should be wagering as well?

Are the Packers Smoke and Mirrors?

There’s no taking away Green Bay’s 11 wins, because if it were that easy, there’d be more than just six teams that are at that plateau. But the eye test and statistics are enough to make you wonder. The Packers rank 22nd in total offense.

While their defense is much improved from a season ago, it too ranks in the bottom half of the league at 23rd. Look at the opponents, and their signature win is probably a victory in Kansas City (the first game back from injury for Patrick Mahomes), while getting crushed in their only big-game showdown of the year, 37-8 to San Francisco.

Of their 11 wins, seven were decided by one possession or less, including the Week 2 meeting with the Vikings (who’d yet to take off). Still, win out and get some help, and Green Bay could be the top seed in the NFC.

While you can point to the Pack adjusting to the new system under Matt LaFleur, it appears Green Bay is stuck in style purgatory: is this offense built on their running back tandem of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams? Jones is second in the NFL with 17 total TD’s, including a league leading 14 on the ground. Together, they’ve combined for over 1,200 yards rushing and 15 TDs and 82 receptions for 659 yards and eight TD’s.

Or is this still Aaron Rodgers’ orchestration? Rodgers has tossed 24 TDs to just two interceptions, but, save for a pair of 400-yard outings and one 300+ yard game, Rodgers has gone under 245 yards passing in 10 of his other 11 starts. He can still get it done, but counting on a mega-Rodgers performance to lift his team to victory isn’t a shoo-in like previous years.

Vikings Shorthanded for Showdown

Minnesota still has a path to the division, but they’ll need to win out, and hope that NFC North rival Detroit somehow upsets the Pack in Week 17 – but first thing first.

The Vikings have been used to having a dominant D in the past, and while they’re running in the middle of the pack, their offense has taken a leap forward (10th in the NFL) to offset the regression. It really started with quarterback Kirk Cousins playing better.

He’s been especially lethal at home, throwing for 10 TDs and just one interception on a crisp 126.0 passer rating in six games. He’ll likely be in lock step with Stefon Diggs in this one, as Diggs has a TD reception in six straight games against the Packers.

Mike Zimmer’s offense has been predicated on balance, but that’s going to be an issue in this one. Running back Dalvin Cook, the engine of the offense with 1,135 yards rushing (seventh in NFL) and 13 rushing TDs (T-3rd) has already been ruled out for this one.

It doesn’t stop there: backup Alexander Mattison (ankle) is also questionable, leaving  second-year back Mike Boone the primary option. He did have his first two career TD’s scored last week in a blowout of the Chargers.

What’s the Best Bet?

These are two opportunistic defenses. Green Bay ranks second in the NFL with a +14 takeaway differential, aided by the fact they’ve committed a league-low nine turnovers this season. The Vikings are right up there as well, in a tie for fourth at +11.

The Pack will be looking for their first win in Minnesota’s new digs, as they are 0-3 since US Bank Stadium opened in 2016. Rodgers has 21 TD passes and two interceptions with a 110.1 passer rating in 11 career road games against the Vikings but he’s won just five of those starts. Not to be outdone, Cousins is a career 0-8 on Monday Night Football.

No Cook forces Cousins to be more one dimensional, and that plays into some of the strengths of Green Bay’s defense, who have the third-best interception percentage in the league. It could be a factor in the red zone as well, as the Pack give up less than 50% of possessions inside the 20 to score a touchdown, which ranks fifth-best in red zone rate.

You can see why the sharps are on the Pack’s side, and they betting pubic is close behind. You should be too.
The pick: Packers +5 (-110)
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