NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages for Buccaneers vs Cardinals Sunday Night Football

• Tampa Bay is being backed by 68% of the spread money in the Buccaneers vs Cardinals public betting splits ahead of tonight’s contest
• The over/under wagers and handle are split down the middle at the current total of 41
• A comprehensive breakdown of the Buccaneers vs Cardinals public betting splits can be found below

Hard to believe, but at 6-8 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on top of the NFC South with only three games left to play.

The Carolina Panthers, who own the tiebreak over the Bucs, are suddenly right on Tampa Bay’s heels at 6-9. That means tonight’s Buccaneers vs Cardinals showdown in Arizona, is a must win for Tom Brady and Co.

That’s the way bettors are certainly looking at this matchup per the NFL public betting trends, as they’re throwing their support behind Tampa Bay as the heavy road chalk.

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Buccaneers vs Cardinals ATS Betting Splits

The Buccaneers are currently 7.5-point favorites, up 4.5 points since the opening line was released. Even at that inflated number, Tampa Bay is garnering 68% of the spread money, coming from 59% of the ATS bets.

There are reasons to like the Bucs in this spot, however their recent track record against the spread is not one of them. Tampa Bay is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games, including 0-4 against the spread on the road. For the season, the Bucs are a league-worst 3-10-1 ATS.

As for Brady, he’s been atrocious under the primetime lights since joining Tampa Bay. He’s 2-12 against the spread in 14 primetime regular season and playoff games. The Bucs are coming off a back breaking loss to the Bengals, and are winless against the spread following a defeat this season.

Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now an NFL-worst 3-10-1 ATS (6-8 SU).

They are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games.

Yet, they are -400 to make the playoffs b/c of the putrid NFC South pic.twitter.com/GRa6ozqunb

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) December 20, 2022

The Cardinals meanwhile, have typically excelled as underdogs during the Kliff Kingsbury era, but they’ve been abysmal at covering games at home no matter what side of the line they’ve been on over the last two years. Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its past 13 home games.

The primary reason to back Tampa Bay is the Cardinals quarterback situation. Kyler Murray is out for the year, while backup Colt McCoy will sit tonight.

That means Trace McSorley will make his first career start. McSorley has thrown only 39 passes at the NFL level, completing just 46% of them. He has more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (1), and was a dismal 7-for-15 with two picks in relief last week versus Denver.

Tampa Bay vs Arizona Total Betting Splits

Another reason to like the Bucs is the fact that only five defenses grade our worse per DVOA than Arizona’s. The Cardinals are especially bad against the run, making Tampa Bay RB’s popular targets in the Buccaneers vs Cardinals player props. Just because the Cards bleed points and yards however, don’t expect a high-scoring game.

The total currently sits at 41 after opening a point higher. The over/under wagers and handle are essentially split right down the middle, and one of our experts is backing a low-scoring game in the Buccaneers vs Cardinals picks.

Tampa Bay has been one of the most profitable under teams this season. The under is 10-4 in their 14 outings, and a perfect 8-0 in games against teams with a sub .500 record (like Arizona). The Bucs defense is still an imposing unit, ranking ninth per DVOA, and should give the inexperienced McSorley all kinds of problems.

Buccaneers last 3 opposing QB's this season:

Trace McSorley
Sam Darnold
Desmond Ridder

Only Tom Brady could be so lucky.

— Barry (@BarryOnHere) December 21, 2022

Arizona has been a better over target this season, with a 7-5-2 record to the over. This will be their fourth game without Murray under center, and against all odds, the over has hit in each of those previous three games. One caveat though is the team has averaged only 14 points per outing without their starting QB.

Buccaneers vs Cardinals Moneyline Splits

As far as the moneyline market goes, the betting action is completely one-sided. 89% of the tickets and handle are on Tampa Bay as -345 favorites. A large portion of those bets are likely tied up in Christmas Day moneyline parlays, with the Bucs being a very popular last leg.

Neither team enters play in fine form, as Tampa Bay has dropped back-to-back games and three of its last four. Not to be outdone, Arizona has lost four straight and six of seven. The Cards are an NFC worst 1-7 straight up at home, and have won just four times in their last 15 games in Arizona.