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Rams vs 49ers Week 16 Picks, Odds & Preview – Bettors Fading LA with Their Season on the Line

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Dec 20, 2019 · 6:00 PM PST

Richard Sherman entering field
Richard Sherman should be a go when the 49ers host the Rams in Week 16 play Saturday night. Photo from @AroundTheNFL (Twitter).
  • 49ers try to eliminate Rams from playoff contention as they seek NFC’s top seed
  • Los Angeles needs to win out and have Vikings lose twice to make the playoffs
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below

With a chance to still claim the top seed in the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers (11-3, 5-2 home) try to bounce back from a crippling loss to the lowly Atlanta Falcons, as they welcome in the Los Angeles Rams (8-6, 4-3 away), the capper on what should be a great three-game NFL Saturday slate in Week 16.

For Los Angeles to have any hope of sneaking into the playoffs, this is a must-win. Kickoff is set for 8:15pm ET.

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers Odds

Team Moneyline Spread  Total at BookMaker
Los Angeles Rams +234 +6.5 (-113) Over 44.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers -285 -6.5 (-107) Under 44.5 (-110)

*Odds taken December 20

One look at the Rams vs 49ers odds shows that the visiting team is in tough, and the wager report from Bookmaker reflects that reality as well. Three-quarters of the betting public is backing the home side, with an even higher number of actual dollars, 77%, also sticking with the Niners.

Perhaps the sharps sense the desperation, because they’re on another course, placing 69% of wagers on the visiting Rams.  Let’s unpack this NFC West matchup and find the best bet.

San Francisco Stumbles in Week 15

If they have any plans of making a deep run in the playoffs, then, in theory, there can be no more weeks off.

In an ultra-tight, top-heavy conference battle, the 49ers have not been able to prove if they’re pretender of contender. Their first loss of the year to the Seahawks in Week 10 brought rumblings of a soft schedule leading to their inflated defensive stats.

They appeared to shatter those stereotypes in Weeks 12-14 as their schedule got heavy. They inflicted a 37-8 thrashing on the Packers, before losing a heavyweight slugfest to the Ravens. They then went toe-to-toe with the Saints in an instant classic, coming away with a spectacular 48-46 road win.

Looking like world beaters, San Francisco laid an egg last week to the going-nowhere Falcons, losing grip of top spot in the division and conference in the process.

The defense has been average after a blistering start. They are allowing 25.9 points per game over their last seven games, putting them as a bottom-10 defense in points allowed. Their first seven games, the 49ers defense allowed just 11 points a contest, which was second-best in the NFL.

They’re hoping the return of Richard Sherman will solidify the backfield, giving the pass rush an extra second of coverage it needs to get home.

On offense, it might be as simple as Jimmy Garappolo being better. He was a non-factor against the Falcons, going 22-for-34 for 200 yards and one TD. That’s the sixth time he’s thrown for 200 or less yards in a game this season.

He can still lean on a powerful running game that manages close to 150 yards a contest, but with the defense struggling, he’ll have to outscore some of those deficiencies.

Rams Yo-Yo from Week to Week

Hard to imagine that last year’s Super Bowl finalist could look this disjointed a year later. But here the Rams are, needing to win out and have Minnesota to lose out in order to sneak into the playoffs.

https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/1206686240038240256

Of course there was going to be some regression, but Sean McVay’s squad has struggled to score consistently. On the face, averaging close to 24 points a game and ranking 14th doesn’t look that bad, but dropping from last year’s 32.9 clip is precipitous.

It starts at QB. Jared Goff is averaging close to two yards less per attempt, as the throwing lanes have closed. He’s thrown just 17 TDs this year along with 15 interceptions. He had 32 TD passes a year ago with just 12 picks.

But Goff was always the appetizer to the feature dish of Todd Gurley. A mysterious knee injury has cratered his production. He’s yet to break 100 yards rushing in a game, is averaging 3.9 yards a tote, and had eight games where he’s had 15 carries or less. He had 10 games with at least 15 carries last season. LA simply can’t trust him to be the fulcrum of their offense, and they look lost because of it.

That inconsistency sometimes breaks the defense, as it did last week against the Cowboys, trampling what was a top-10 run D for 263 yards. This after a dominant effort the week prior against the Seahawks, where they held Russell Wilson without a TD for the first time all season.

Who’s the Best Bet?

The last time these two teams met, the 49ers were still an unknown commodity and decimated their NFC West foe to the tune of 20-7. The score was flattering for the Rams, as Goff threw for 78 yards, and LA was held to 157 total yards.

Even with LA’s desperation to stay alive, it’s hard to back a team that can’t deliver with any consistency. Despite the fact they’re 5-2 ATS on the road, and the 49ers are 3-3-1 ATS at Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco’s defense will be able to limit Goff, especially with Gurley unable to keep them off balance.

The pick: 49ers -6.5 (-107)

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