San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals Odds, Lines, and Picks
By Bryan Thiel in NFL Football
Published:
- The 4-0 Arizona Cardinals, the NFL’s lone unbeaten team, host the San Francisco 49ers with Trey Lance making his first start
- 2021 Record: 1-2, -1.09 units
- See the odds, preview and prediction for this Week 5, NFC West matchup
When people think of the Week 5 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals, they should be thinking about the NFL’s last undefeated team. And Kyler Murray.
All he’s doing is playing at an MVP level, dominating on the ground and through the air. Oh, and he knocked off fellow MVP candidate and NFC West rival Matthew Stafford last week.
But after Jimmy Garoppolo was injured in San Fran’s loss against the Seahawks, Trey Lance will get his first career start this Sunday.
And what better initiation than to throw him into the thick of an NFC West rivalry that kicks off at 4:25 pm EST at State Farm Stadium?
49ers vs Cardinals Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | +195 | +5.5 (-110) | Ov 48.5 (-110) |
| Arizona Cardinals | -240 | -5.5 (-110) | Un 48.5 (-110) |
Odds as of October 9th at DraftKings
Arizona opened the week as heavy favorites, undoubtedly because of the uncertainty at quarterback. The Cards have done well against the spread this year, going 3-1 through four weeks. The lone blip was their one point win over the Vikings in Week 2, which almost resulted in a loss.
Jimmy Garoppolo officially out Sunday vs. Arizona. Trey Lance will make his first NFL start.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 8, 2021
San Fran is just 1-3 ATS this season, and after starting 2-0 outright they’ve dropped their last two. The cementing of Jimmy G’s status only hurt the total, as it opened at 49.5.
Garoppolo’s Health Takes Center Stage
When Garoppolo exited the Week 4 loss to Seattle, he was pretty much resigned to the fact that he would miss a few weeks. He said it himself.
Midweek it seemed like he may have a shot to play. But things never materialized in his favor.
Week 5 Injury Report: 49ers vs Cardinals
| 49ers | Injury, Status | Cardinals | Injury, Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo, QB | Thigh, Out | Kelvin Beachum, OL | Ribs, Questionable |
| Samson Ebukam, DL | Hamstring, Questionable | Byron Murphy, CB | Ribs, Out |
| George Kittle, TE | Calf, Doubtful | Chase Edmonds, RB | Shoulder, Questionable |
| K’Waun Williams, CB | Calf, Out | Antonio Hamilton, CB | Ankle, Questionable |
| Javon Kinlaw, DT | Knee, Questionable | Maxx Williams, TE | Shoulder, Questionable |
| N/A | N/A | Eno Benjamin, RB | Hamstring, Questionable |
| N/A | N/A | Marco Wilson, CB | Ribs, Questionable |
While Garoppolo’s thigh got most of the attention this week, San Fran’s other losses are notable too. George Kittle takes a big-time target off the field for Lance. Although he’s battled some consistency issues, Kittle has still drawn a massive target share. Weeks 3 and 4 he combined for 19 looks, with seven catches in Week 3 and four in Week 4.
So with one of his biggest (literally and figuratively) targets out, the third overall pick will get to start, and finish, the game on Sunday.
Trey Lance: Week-by-Week
| Week | Comp/Att | Yards | TD | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 @ DET | 1/1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Week 3 vs GB | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Week 4 vs SEA | 9/18 | 157 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
Outside of one snap in Week 3, Lance has spent all of his time at QB with the 49ers. So the rookie has been able to fully concentrate on his responsibilities under center. And while his action has been limited in the NFL, good things have happened when he’s been on the field.
Lance’s first two drives against Seattle went nowhere, as he went 0-for-2. After that he hit Deebo Samuel for a ridiculously easy 76-yard touchdown. Then he went 1-for-4 for 11 yards and a sack.
TREY LANCE ➡️ DEEBO TD 🙌
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/DpwH9GSiRU
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 3, 2021
His last drive though, Lance went 7-for-12 for 70 yards and a TD. Owning a two score lead, the Seahawks were more than willing to let Lance embark on a drive that took over three minutes, but it’s still a good sign.
Cards’ Defense Capitalizing Too
While Murray and the offense are getting all of the headlines in Arizona, the Cards’ defense is putting together a great season too.
Outside of a top-ten tackle rating (65.9) PFF graded Arizona 21st or worse in every defensive category in 2020. This year their overall defensive score is ninth-best at 66.9. Their run defense is still at the bottom of the league, but their pass rush (third) and coverage (fifth) grades are high.
AZ QB Kyler Murray has earned all the love and attention he will receive for how he took apart the Rams, but the Cardinals defense and OL better get some major love too. They put on a clinic in physicality and execution.
— Steve Wyche (@wyche89) October 3, 2021
Arizona has given up the ninth-lowest completion percentage, and eighth-lowest yards-per-attempt and passer rating to opposing QBs. They’ve also given up the third-fewest plays of 20+ and 40+ yards combined, so don’t expect any 76-yard gifts.
Lance in Tough for First Start
Kyle Shanahan has already told the media that they won’t be installing anything new for Lance on Sunday. Everything they roll out will be something he’s seen and is comfortable with. So that begs the question of whether or not it has the complexity to challenge the Cardinals.
There will be a lot of attention paid to Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk on Sunday. The 49ers running game will do some damage, but will it be enough?
Probably not. The Cards roll to 5-0.
The Pick: Arizona Cardinals, -5.5 (-110), 1 unit
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
