Steelers Favored to Claim Last Playoff Spot in AFC; Are the Titans the Better Bet?

• Pittsburgh Steelers have seen their NFL playoff odds improve despite their loss to Buffalo last weekend
• A loss to Houston has stripped the Tennessee Titans of control of their own playoff destiny
• Titans will likely need to win out and see either the Steelers or Texans stumble to back into a playoff spot

With just two weeks left in the NFL regular season, a tight two-way race continues for the second AFC wild card, with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans deadlocked with identical 8-6 SU records. But with the Steelers currently holding the tiebreaker edge, and arguably the more favorable schedule, they also sit ahead of Tennessee in the odds to make the NFL playoffs, where they are listed as a short -250 bet.

Odds to Make the NFL Playoffs

Odds taken on Dec. 17

Week 15 Losses Intensify Playoff Race

Both these teams missed a golden opportunity to solidify a playoff position in Week 15. The Steelers fell short in their bid to pull even with Buffalo in the race for the top wild card, dropping a 17-10 decision to the Bills as 1-point home chalk, while the Titans came up short in their bid for first place in the AFC South standings, ending an impressive four-game SU winning streak with a 24-21 loss to the visiting Houston Texans as 3-point favorites.

AFC Playoff Standings, Week 15
1⃣ Ravens 12-2
2⃣ Patriots 11-3
3⃣ Chiefs 10-4
4⃣ Texans 9-5
5⃣ Bills 10-4 (WC)
6⃣ Steelers 8-6 (WC)
🔶 Titans 8-6
🔶 Browns 6-8
🔶 Raiders 6-8
⛔️ Colts 6-8
⛔️ Jaguars 5-9
⛔️ Broncos 5-9
⛔️ Chargers 5-9
⛔️ Jets 5-9
⛔️ Dolphins 3-11
⛔️ Bengals 1-13

— René Bugner (@RNBWCV) December 17, 2019

Despite their defeat at the hands of the Bills, the Steelers have actually seen their odds to make the NFL playoffs improve from their position at -200 going into Week 15. But even with last weekend’s defeat, the Steelers remain firmly in control of their own playoff destiny, and can clinch a playoff spot by posting wins in their final two outings.

Steelers Enjoy Easier Road

The easier part of that test comes on Sunday, when the Steelers visit the New York Jets as 3-point favorites. The Jets are coming off a crushing 42-21 loss in Baltimore as massive 17-point underdogs, marking their second outright loss in three contests since enjoying a three-game SU win streak.

Our playoff scenarios are as follows….
-Win out
-Win one game and Titans lose to the Texans
-Win one game and a the Texans lose their final 2 games
– Lose our final 2 and have the Titans lose both games and the browns and raiders each lose a game
We can do it! #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/ChsqCFePDN

— YinzNationSport (@YinzNationSport) December 16, 2019

Suffering numerous injuries, New York has also struggled to generate offense, generating just 16 points per game over their past three, with 14 of their points scored against Baltimore coming in garbage time. The Steelers have also posted wins in four of five meetings with New York, while not surrendering more than 20 points in any of those contests.

The Steelers find themselves in the unusual position of cheering on Baltimore in its Week 16 road matchup with the Cleveland Browns. With a SU victory on Sunday, the Ravens can clinch the AFC top seed, leaving them positioned to rest key starters in their season finale against Pittsburgh

With a Week 17 date with the Ravens awaiting, the Steelers find themselves in the unusual position of cheering on Baltimore in its Week 16 road matchup with the Cleveland Browns. With a SU victory on Sunday, the Ravens can clinch the AFC top seed, leaving them positioned to rest key starters in their season finale against Pittsburgh.

Titans Lose Control of Their Destiny

For the Titans, the loss to Houston has been devastating. Pegged as a strong -230 wager to advance to the postseason going into Week 15, Tennessee now finds itself pegged as -170 bet to miss the playoffs. With their loss to Houston, the Titans lost control of their playoff destiny, and will need either the Texans or Steelers to stumble down the stretch while taking care of their own business.

15 minutes:

Discussing all the #Titans playoff scenarios after the loss to the #Texans: https://t.co/HI0RXkroHM

— AtoZ Sports Nashville (@AtoZSports) December 15, 2019

Unlike the Steelers, the Titans face a decidedly more difficult road to the postseason, starting with a visit from the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon. The Saints are coming off a 34-7 thrashing of the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, and have already clinched the NFC South title. However, New Orleans still has plenty of work to do if the team is to nail down a first-round bye. The Saints also currently enjoy a 5-0 SU and ATS run on the road, and haven’t lost in Tennessee since 2003.

And even if they pull out the win over a highly motivated Saints squad, and then knock off the Texans in Week 17, the Titans would still need either the Steelers to lose in both of their remaining games or Houston to lose to Tampa Bay this weekend. Stranger things have happened, of course. And the Buccaneers are red hot, posting wins in four straight outings. But with most scenarios working against the Titans, the betting value now lies in them missing the playoffs for yet another year.

Pick: Titans to miss the playoffs (-170)