NFL Thanksgiving Day Props: Odds to Lead in Passing, Rushing & Receiving Yards

• Michael Thomas is favored have the most receiving yards on Thanksgiving
• Ezekiel Elliott is the best bet the rushing leader on Turkey day
• Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Dak Prescott are the only players to consider for betting the passing leader this Thursday.

Thanksgiving week is upon us, which means we’ll have a full day’s worth of football action this coming Thursday.

Online betting sites have posted a slew of Thanksgiving Day props for the three games on the board, so let’s take a look through the menu and see where there’s some value.

Thanksgiving Passing Yardage Leader Odds

All Odds taken Nov. 25

All six starting quarterbacks are on the board here, but it looks pretty clear that there are only three you’d want to bet.  Mitchell Trubisky, Jeff Driskel and Josh Allen don’t look like they’re worth betting as they aren’t guys that pile up the passing yards.

.@Dak to @rcobb18 ?
What a grab! #DALvsNE | #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/f09CCtX42G

— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) November 24, 2019

Drew Brees is favored here and he’s coming off a 311-yard effort this past weekend. He’s also going up against the Atlanta Falcons, who have the league’s 28th-ranked pass defense. He had 287 passing yards against the Falcons in the first meeting with them.

As for his counterpart, Matt Ryan, he only had 182 passing yards against the Saints in the first meeting. The Falcons won that game by running the football (143 rushing yards) and they’re likely going to try that same formula. Putting the game on Ryan’s shoulders hasn’t worked well for them this season.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott is in a tight spot as he comes in third in line in these odds but has to face a tough Buffalo Bills pass defense. The Bills allow the third-fewest passing yards per game at 184.3 and with their run defense being a bit vulnerable, Dallas will probably lean on the run more.

Why is Ezekiel Elliott running with a full size Motel 6 bathroom towel tucked in his pants? pic.twitter.com/akag4XIvfB

— Russell Wilsons TD% is unsustainable (@AnOutragedJew) November 25, 2019

For me, this is a bit of a coin toss between Brees and Ryan. I would take a small shot here on Ryan with the thinking that the Falcons won’t be able to run as well as they did in the first meeting and Ryan will have to air it out for them.

Thanksgiving Rushing Yards Leader Odds

Ezekiel Elliott is the clear-cut favorite to lead the day in rushing this Thursday. While he’s priced at +150, the next five options on the board are bunched up between +400 and +750. However, only Elliott and Alvin Kamara are the strong options here, while the rest are dart throws.

Devin Singletary has rare quickness pic.twitter.com/OaeUZgo0Dx

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) November 25, 2019

Elliott seems to have a good matchup even though he’s going up against a decent run defense in the Buffalo Bills (104.4 rushing yards per game allowed). The Bills have played a soft schedule this season but in their three losses, they’ve allowed an average of 146.3 yards on the ground.

I really don’t like anyone else on the board here – including Kamara. He averages just 58.4 rushing yards per game.

As for Devin Singletary, David Montgomery or Bo Scarbrough, could they breakout and have a big day? Possibly, but that’s just dart throwing. Elliott looks like the best investment.

Thanksgiving Receiving Yards Leader Odds

There are a lot of good options on the board with this prop, but Michael Thomas looks like the best bet here. Given how he’s performed recently, it’s no surprise that he’s favored here at +200.

Thomas is on an absolute tear right now as he’s picked up at least eight catches and at least 100 receiving yards in five straight games. The only other players in NFL history that have ever done that have done that are Isaac Bruce (1995), Anquan Boldin (2005) and Calvin Johnson (2012).

Two words to describe @Cantguardmike‘s career so far?

Consistently dominant. @Saints | #Saints pic.twitter.com/wy1Lieej5f

— NFL (@NFL) November 25, 2019

The other options are not as strong here as Julio Jones comes in at +250 but he’s averaged just 79.3 receiving yards over his last three games. He had exactly 79 against the Saints three weeks ago. Calvin Ridley, who is third in line, has come to life with 228 receiving yards the last two weeks but he had no more than 70 in a game in his previous seven.

Amari Cooper and Kenny Golladay are the favorites in their respective games but Cooper is coming off a muted game in New England and could be stuffed again going against a strong Bills pass defense. Meanwhile, Golladay is still working with backup Jeff Driskel as Matt Stafford is out with a back injury.

Although the payout isn’t great for Michael Thomas, he appears to be the best bet here.