Vikings vs 49ers Props for Divisional Round – Expect Jimmy G to Hand the Ball Off a Lot

• The San Francisco 49ers allowed 4.5 yards-per-carry this season, which ranked 23rd in the NFL
• The Minnesota Vikings allowed just nine rushing touchdowns this season, which was the fourth-fewest in the NFL
• Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging 20.6 completions per game this season

The Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers will get the party started for the Divisional Round games this weekend. There are many opinions and predictions for this game out there, so in this article, we’re going to take a look at the props and see if we can find some winners. Here are three that are worth a look:

Prop #1: Dalvin Cook Over 73.5 Rushing Yards

Odds taken Jan. 10.

The general consensus is that the 49ers have a really strong defense and while the overall numbers are good – second in yards allowed, eighth in points allowed – they have had some issues stopping the run. The 49ers gave up 4.5 yards-per-carry this season, which ranked them 23rd in the NFL.

That number was also helped by a strong finish as they were gashed multiple times down the stretch. The Arizona Cardinals had 135 and 153 rushing yards in their two meetings, the Seattle Seahawks ran for 147. The Green Bay Packers had 117 in a 37-8 blowout loss while the Baltimore Ravens ran for 178.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfFVJho50TI

It’s clear that Cook will be the focal point of the Vikings offense here and the 49ers will do everything to stop him. However, this looks like a decent matchup for him and I’m betting the over.

Prop #2: Raheem Mostert Under 12.5 Carries

Odds taken Jan. 10.

Mostert is tasked with getting to 13 carries with this prop but I’d be weary betting the over. This is a 49ers backfield that’s crowded as Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman also get carries, and who knows who’ll have the hot hand? Mostert was clearly the lead dog down the stretch but he had less than 13 carries in three of his final four games.

On the year, Mostert had just 137 totes, which boils down to 8.5 per game. He did hit 13 or more three times on the season but keep in mind that when he got over 12.5, it wasn’t by much. His season-high for carries was 19 but his other two overs were 13 and 14. He’s probably not going to get 20 carries and cruise over the number on Saturday.

Also, take note of the opponent. The Vikings were 13th in run defense and allowed just nine rushing touchdowns all season, which was the fourth-fewest. They’re decent in this regard. For those reasons, I’d be looking at the under here.

Prop #3: Jimmy Garoppolo Under 22 Completions

Odds taken Jan. 10.

We’re looking at a fairly high over-under of completions for Garropolo in this spot and I like the under. After all, he’s completed 23 or more passes just once in his last six games. On the season, he’s doing 20.6 per game, so the oddsmakers are expecting him to go above and beyond what he normally does.

One of the reasons why Garoppolo is facing a higher number than his average is because the Vikings pass defense just hasn’t been great this season. They’ve allows the third-most pass completions in the NFL and the sixth-highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoUYsU0HgSE

However, their defensive line showed up in a big way last weekend and disrupted the New Orleans Saints passing game. I see them doing the same here. The Saints had allowed the third-fewest sacks in the NFL; the 49ers were 12th-fewest, so this matchup should work even better for the Vikings this week. That’s part of why I like under for Garoppolo’s completions.