Updated NFL Win Totals & Best Bets – Bills & Bucs Given Highest Win Totals, Falcons the Lowest

• 10 NFL teams currently boast double-digit win totals led by the Bills and Buccaneers
• One of those teams is the Chiefs, who have won at least 11 games in six of the past seven seasons
• Read below for the updated 2022 NFL win totals and some of our favorite bets to target

We finally made it. For the next five-plus months there will be NFL games to consume multiple times a week, every week. With the season on the verge of kicking off, it’s time to take one last look at the futures market, to see if there are any win totals we should be targeting.

NFL Win Totals Betting Odds

Odds as of September 6th at Barstool Sportsbook

There’s been plenty of movement in the NFL win totals since we last checked in, with teams like Carolina and Minnesota seeing their number boosted by a game and a half. No team saw a bigger dip than Atlanta, as the Falcons win total went from 5 to a league-low 3.5.

In case you missed it, our very own SBD Formula pegged the five teams most likely to go under their 2022 win total last month, and while I agree with nearly all the candidates, there is one glaring disagreement.

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Chiefs Over 10.5 Wins

The bear case on the Kansas City Chiefs is simple. They play in the best division in football and have a daunting schedule over the first half of the season. Six of the Chiefs’ first eight games are against teams that went to the playoffs last year. That includes heavyweight tilts with the Bills and Bucs, who are the two biggest favorites in the NFL division odds.

In addition to a gruelling AFC West schedule, they’ll also face the NFC West this season, meaning a date with the defending champion Rams and the NFC runner-up 49ers.

AFC West Champions – Last Six Years

If that wasn’t enough reason to be down on KC, Tyreek Hill is gone leaving KC to replace 111 catches, 1,239 receiving yards and 9 TDs.

Here’s the bull case though. Patrick Mahomes is a generational talent and is on a path to go down as one of the greatest quarterback talents of all-time. Andy Reid is a top-five head coach, and a top-three offensive mind.

Patrick Mahomes through first 63 starts — #NFL history

Pass yards — 18,991 (1st)
Pass TD — 151 (2nd)*
Pass completions — 1,550 (1st)
Passer rating — 105.8 (1st)
INT thrown — 37 (1st)

Only Dan Marino is ahead of Mahomes (156)#Chiefs #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/7gQhNGkb6O

— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) September 4, 2022

The Chiefs have completely rebuilt an offensive line that abandoned them in Super Bowl 55, and turned it into an overwhelming strength. KC’s o-line is graded number two this season by offensive line guru Brandon Thron, behind only the Eagles.

As for Hill’s absence, the Chiefs more than addressed the void in free agency. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is an absolute burner that will stretch the field, while JuJu Smith-Schuster can win both inside and out. Don’t forget it was only a few years ago that JuJu was considered the number one player in dynasty fantasy football circles.

"They'll be ready to roll."

– Coach Reid on JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who each missed some time in recent weeks. Great news heading into Week 1.

— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) September 5, 2022

Yes, the schedule will be difficult, but who else would you rather bet on than Mahomes and Reid in big games. KC isn’t going to go undefeated this season, but even if they went 6-4 in their 10 most difficult games, there’s still a handful of easy wins out there to push them to 11 victories (Jacksonville, Seattle and Houston for example).

The Chiefs have won at least 11 games in all four years with Mahomes under center, and in six of the past seven years overall. They also boast the second shortest NFL Playoff odds in the AFC.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Over 10.5 Wins (-121)

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Bears Under 6.5 Wins

We go from a team with an elite offensive line to one with one of the weakest, if not the worst in football. The Chicago Bears didn’t do alleged franchise QB Justin Fields any favors this offseason, and if you were a conspiracy theorist you could make the case that the new regime wants him to fail.

Chicago’s o-line projects as the 31st ranked unit by Pro Football Focus, ahead of only Seattle’s. They didn’t do nearly enough to upgrade that position, but that’s not their lone weakness. Number one wide receiver Allen Robinson is gone, yet they added nothing but career backups and underwhelming prospects to replace him.

Now introducing your 2022 Chicago Bears!pic.twitter.com/IUPKGYh6QL

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 5, 2022

Defensively, they also project to be a bottom-five unit. Their best player Roquan Smith is unhappy and wants a trade, while their top pass rusher Robert Quinn is a prime candidate to be dealt to a contender prior to the deadline.

Rookie head coach Matt Eberflus has coached nothing but defenses for the last 30 years, which again isn’t the ideal fit for a team trying to develop a quarterback. The schedule does contain a few winnable games, but they’re likely going to be underdogs in 15 of their 17 contests.

Pick: Chicago Bears Under 6.5 Wins (-190)