Who Will Leave Trump Cabinet Next? Alex Azar an Even-Money Betting Favorite

• The COVID-19 pandemic has put a lot of pressure on President Donald Trump and his cabinet
• Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar is favored to be next to leave the administration
• Is there value with any longshots on the board as Azar and many other cabinet members appear to be on good footing?

Although it feels like President Donald Trump’s cabinet has had more stability of late – much more than in his early days in office – the coronavirus outbreak has raised the question as to who will leave next.

Alex Azar, Secretary of Health and Human Services, is favored in the latest political futures, but is he actually the best bet?

Odds on Which Cabinet Member Will Leave Trump Administration Next

Odds as of Mar. 19.

Is Azar On The Hot Seat?

As we know with President Trump, he often finds someone to blame for whatever is going wrong and HHS Secretary Alex Azar could become the scapegoat for COVID-19. Trump is being heavily impugned for his role in the outbreak – bragging that it’s just a small problem early on – but the truth is much of this isn’t his fault.

Regardless of who is the President, the Federal programs in the country need to be on-point. Trump was clearly too nonchalant at the beginning but why wasn’t the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) better prepared? Given the H1N1 outbreak and Ebola, they should have been better prepared.

Briefed on the latest regarding #COVID19 this morning by @POTUS, @VP and @HHSgov Secretary Alex Azar, joined by @Supt_Hoffman, @DrCaraChrist, @wendysmithreev1, and Governors across the country. pic.twitter.com/GiNEtMdgYB

— Doug Ducey (@dougducey) March 16, 2020

On top of that, after seeing the outbreak progress in China, why weren’t they ready with more tests? Even now, the country might not be ready with enough ventilators if the pandemic does fully become a nightmare. Some of that will fall on Azar’s shoulders and he might get fired or not want to deal with it.

In fairness, not a lot of this is his fault. It doesn’t matter who is President; these are very difficult things to prepare for. The United States has done a much better job with testing of late and they were very smart to involve private companies to help. It’s a bad situation but given what’s happened in Italy, Spain and Germany, it’s unlikely anything better could have been done.

Will Wilbur Ross Leave?

I’m not sure why Ross is on the list – especially being second in line, according to the odds – because he’s actually done a pretty good job with the trade deals. The Commerce Secretary has helped hammer out the new USMCA (North America trade deal) and they’ve reached Phase I of a trade deal with China.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says that the Trump admin's decision to delay tariffs on certain Chinese goods was made to help American consumers, which seems to run counter to Trump's claim that the Chinese would be paying the full price of his tariffs. pic.twitter.com/cbg0kAB9UG

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 14, 2019

Beyond that, the mainstream media and many “experts” had previewed just how bad of an idea tariffs on China were and how much they’d hurt Americans but there has been very minimal impact on the American side. Instead, the Chinese economy has taken a hit. It’s likely even that if Joe Biden became President later in the year he’d continue with the strategy.

The only way I see Ross leaving is if the U.S. and China finish their trade deal and he simply decides to leave. Otherwise, I don’t see him leaving during the Trump presidency. Maybe he leaves with Trump if Trump loses, although the 2020 Presidential Odds tracker shows he’s still got a good chance to win.

What’s The Best Bet?

This is a tough one as Azar is probably the most likely to go but I don’t think he’s really in any danger. And all of the options on the board that follow him – Ross, Steven Mnuchin, William Barr, Ben Carson and Mike Pompeo – are all on very solid ground.

Everyone’s been wondering for years if Betsy DeVos is corrupt, incompetent, or both. Today I asked her ? pic.twitter.com/bhu4jtqelm

— Rep. Josh Harder (@RepJoshHarder) December 12, 2019

If I had to bet someone right now, it would probably be Betsy Devos. The Education Secretary just took a big bipartisan hit when both Democrats and Republicans shot down her idea of attempting to limit debt relief for defrauded students. She’s never been super popular and while she’s flying under the radar, the 25/1 odds seem juicy to me. Almost everyone else is on pretty good ground.