Trump’s Re-Election Odds Fade from -180 to -160 as Stock Market Plummets, Coronavirus Spreads
- A dip in the Dow Jones has coincided with Donald Trump’s re-election odds falling from -180 to -160 at one sportsbook
- If coronavirus proves serious enough to cause a major economic downturn, is Trump in jeopardy?
- A strong economy has long correlated with incumbents winning a second term
Donald Trump’s re-election bid might be infected by the coronavirus.
Fears of the potential damage that such a pandemic could bring to the world’s economy is causing negative ripples in the stock market. It may also be causing Trump’s odds of winning re-election in 2020 to fade.
Trump’s 2020 Presidential election odds dipped from -180 to -160, the first time a sportsbook has made his odds worse in about a month.
2020 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -160 |
| Bernie Sanders | +300 |
| Joe Biden | +1000 |
| Michael Bloomberg | +1200 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +4000 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +10000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +10000 |
| Mike Pence | +15000 |
| Michelle Obama | +25000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +30000 |
| Nikki Haley | +30000 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +50000 |
| John Kasich | +50000 |
| Deval Patrick | +50000 |
| Tom Steyer | +50000 |
| William (Bill) Weld | +50000 |
Odds taken February 27th.
Down Goes The Dow
Mounting fears about the coronavirus have the stock market hitting record-setting lows. Thursday, the Dow Jones index dropped 1,191 points, or 4.4%, its worst one-day point drop in history.
This is the worst stock market crash since the last time we had a Republican president.
— Palmer Report (@PalmerReport) February 27, 2020
The S&P 500 posted its worst day since August 18, 2011, dropping 4.4%. The NASDAQ composite was down 4.6%.
All three major American financial indexes are headed for their worst week since the fall of 2008. That was in the midst of the global financial crisis.
Stock Market Crash Could Take Trump Down
If the stock market continues to tank, Trump’s days in the Oval Office could be numbered.
History says so.
Nearly a half-century ago, economist Arthur Okun established what’s become known as the misery index. In simple terms, it’s a barometer of how average Americans feel about the state of the country’s economy. It’s calculated by adding the unemployment rate and rate of inflation together.
Trump set another Stock Market record!
The biggest one day drop in the history of the Market.
Congrats Mr. President! pic.twitter.com/Tmgw4v9WVc
— SilverAA (@silveraa) February 28, 2020
It was at 7.4% when Trump took office in January of 2017. It had lowered to 5.785% by the end of 2019. However, it’s already climbed to 5.9% less than two months into 2020.
Why does this matter? Well, since Okun created this calculation, just one elected incumbent President has failed to win a second term in the White House when the misery index has gone down. That was Republican George HW Bush, who was defeated by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992.
Pandemic? There’s No Pandemic
Wednesday, Trump held a press conference. His objective was to downplay the danger of coronavirus. He insisted the outbreak was under control.
Pay no attention to that pesky pandemic spreading all over the world. Everyone’s “getting better.”
Trump has now met a crisis he cannot hoax away. Coronavirus crisis is threatening lives, & a far greater danger to the US due to his incompetence. #COVIDー19pic.twitter.com/fB3DaYwXMU— Stephanie Kennedy (@WordswithSteph) February 26, 2020
His words were the complete opposite of what the country’s top medical and disease-control experts have previously stated.
Naturally, Trump is trying to do everything he can to convince investors and the American public that all is well. Nothing will finish a President off like a tanking economy.
Coronavirus Could Be Trump’s Waterloo
Experts have often pondered what would happen if the Trump Administration were faced with a true global crisis. This might be it. And so far, things aren’t going well for him.
Trump made deep cuts to the Center for Disease Control, and fired the staff in charge of dealing with pandemics. Now, he’s scrambling to try and fix what he broke.
Some perspective on Trump's $2.5 billion #coronavirus request:
-His budget cuts $3 billion from global health programs, $3 billion from NIH, and another 16% from CDC
-He's eliminated WH pandemic position
-He's more concerned about health of stock market than public health https://t.co/KyeJRYFzvI
— Chris Lu (@ChrisLu44) February 25, 2020
Trump doesn’t need to catch the Coronavirus to be impacted by it. If this illness proves to be as deadly as some are predicting, the coronavirus could catch Trump and bring him down.
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
