UCL Semifinal Leg 2 Ajax vs Tottenham Odds & Prediction
- Ajax with the advantage
- Energy and zip won the first leg
- Tottenham’s good away record shouldn’t be ignored
Donny van de Beek’s 15th-minute goal in the first leg of this UEFA Champions League Semifinal first-leg has tilted the balance of this tie in favor of Ajax. They will now look to finish the job in the Johan Cruyff Arena next Wednesday, May 8, 2019, at 3:00 pm EST.
Sportsbooks fancy Ajax to not only get the job done in terms of qualifying for the final, but also to win the second leg outright. But given a draw will be enough, the draw at +235 looks generously priced.
Ajax now own average Champions League odds of +330 to win the final.
Ajax vs Tottenham Semifinal Leg 2 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Odds To Qualify |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | pk, -0.5 (-114) | +119 | O3 (-118) | -350 |
| Tottenham | pk, +0.5 (-102) | +215 | U3 (+102) | +260 |
| Draw | N/A | +235 | N/A | N/A |
*Odds taken on May 2, 2019
For many, it’s job done for the Dutch side but that’s ignoring the fact that Tottenham have achieved some great results away from home in this season’s Champions League – notably in Barcelona and Dortmund – and will have striker Son Heung-min available for the second leg. This is far from over.
Spurs Still in the Tie
In many ways, Tottenham will consider a one-goal defeat, even at home, as something of a result in the circumstances, especially after having endured a torrid opening 30 minutes at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
One leg in the final for Ajax!
Dutch side, Ajax secured a Semi Final first leg advantage over Spurs on Tuesday night in the Champions League with a 1-0 win away from home against the Premier League side courtesy of Van De Beek's goal.#UCL #TOTAJA pic.twitter.com/qrXc4OIoFn
— FootyTool Naija (@footytoolnaija) April 30, 2019
The Dutch were quickly out of the blocks and their rapid, energetic, tiki-taka style had the London side pegged back in their own defensive third, during which time van de Beek scored the all-important goal off the back of some fine free-flowing football. It was no more than they deserved.
Poch to the Rescue
It took Tottenham coach Mauricio Pochettino a while to find a solution to Ajax’s dominance, but a change in shape following an injury to Jan Vertonghen did help the north London side to get more of the ball and an element of control.
https://twitter.com/Lantansport/status/1123342761263083525
Having been outplayed horribly in those opening exchanges it was a relief to the noisy Tottenham crowd that they finally had something to get behind, as their team finished the first half strongly and then began the second half in a similar fashion.
On the counter-attack – as they showed in the second half on Tuesday – the Dutch are electric.
For much of the second half, it was Ajax who were penned back in their own defensive third but Tottenham’s attacking play lacked the zip and precision displayed by the Dutch in the opening 30 minutes.
Minus leading scoring Harry Kane – whose ankle injury sustained in the quarterfinal against Man City may keep him out for the rest of the season – and the suspended Son Heung-min, most of Spurs’ good work came with no end product; something they simply have to rectify if they are to stretch Ajax in the second leg.
20 min: Tottenham 0-1 Ajax
It's not going to plan so far tonight for Spurs…#UCL live: https://t.co/TBAm4YXpLw pic.twitter.com/wgtyhshSDy
— Indy Football (@IndyFootball) April 30, 2019
Son the Key
Son will be back and will be key. He’ll add pace and zip and will likely give the Ajax centre-backs a different type of threat to that offered by Lucas Moura and Fernando Llorente on Tuesday night.
Ajax vs Tottenham UCL Stats
| 6/11 | Number of wins in 2019 UCL / Number of games | 5/11 |
| 20/1.82 | Number of goals scored in 2019 UCL / Per game | 17/1.55 |
| 10/0.9 | Number of goals conceded in 2019 UCL / Per game | 15/1.4 |
| 4801/83% | Total passes completed in 2019 UCL / Pass completion | 4695/84% |
| 169/15.4 | Total goal attempts in 2019 UCL / Per game | 159/14.5 |
| 8 | Number of European trophies won | 3 |
| 59 | Number of domestic trophies won | 14 |
| 13 | Number of European semifinals | 7 |
The stats show the edge belongs to Ajax in virtually every department, with goals conceded being especially pertinent.
As a result of Son’s presense, we expect Tottenham to be better in Amsterdam than they were in London, but unlike their opponents, they had and have gruelling Premier League fixtures to play ahead of each leg – a factor that made for a much fresher-looking Ajax in the week.
🗣 John Stones on his @PFA POTY pick:
"I'm a big fan of Son [Heung-Min], he's gone under the radar a bit. I like to go for someone who is a bit under the radar and someone who excites me and I like to watch play."#MCFC 🔵 pic.twitter.com/VaUsnyf8OS
— City Xtra (@City_Xtra) April 29, 2019
Freshness May Give Ajax the Edge
Ultimately, we see this as a decisive factor, so too the away goal Ajax scored on Tuesday. With Son leading their line, we predict that Tottenham will have more attacking thrust and are more than capable of scoring, but on the counter-attack – as they showed in the second half on Tuesday – the Dutch are electric.
So, we’re going for the game to be a draw but for it to be enough for Ajax to qualify for their first Champions League final since 1995.
Our pick: Draw (+235)
Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro, MyFootballWriter.com, and BBC Radio Norfolk.
