AC Milan vs Juventus Odds & Prediction – Serie A Week 9
- AC Milan hosts Juventus in Serie A play on Saturday, October 8th at 12:00 pm ET
- The Rossoneri are 2-2-1 in their last five meetings against Juventus, drawing both matches against The Old Lady last season
- Get the AC Milan vs Juventus picks and betting prediction, below
This Saturday, AC Milan vs Juventus headlines what should be a table-altering week in Italy’s Serie A. Theoretically, with a win, Milan could climb as high as first place, if goal differential also swings in their favor.
In truth, it has not been the best start to Stefano Pioli’s title defense, but there is still plenty of time to make up points. Moreover, Milan will want to right their wrongs this weekend after a European thrashing at the hands of Chelsea.
Likewise, it has also been an incredibly slow start for Massimiliano Allegri’s side in Turin this year. In fact, Juventus have already suffered two Champions League defeats and sit all the way back in seventh place in Serie A.
Even with a win on Saturday, the highest they can jump is sixth place, over Jose Mourinho’s Roma. With that being said, nobody has given Juventus more Serie A draws and losses than AC Milan has.
AC Milan vs Juventus Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| AC Milan | +107 |
| Juventus | +270 |
| Draw | +235 |
Odds as of October 6th from Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this Serie A match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.
As a result, AC Milan is the rightful favorite in this match with moneyline odds of +107. Juventus just do not have form on their side, and you cannot let two wins against Bologna and Maccabi Haifa fool you. Before that, Juventus were winless in five and lost the xG battle on four of those outings; proving this bad form was not a result of just bad luck.
Do not forget to also check out our Serie A odds page, to see who owns the best outright winner position.
Over/Under Odds & Corners x Cards
Furthermore, the odds infer this match is expected to be quite tame in terms of goals. Historically, in their last ten head-to-head matches, the under on 2.5 goals (-135 on Saturday) has hit 60% of the time.
Regardless, these teams have hit the over on 2.5 goals (+105 on Saturday) in 83.33% of their last twelve combined matches. For me, I am leaning toward the over because both of these teams desperately need a win. Who wants to root for a snoozer on Saturday afternoon anyways?
AC Milan vs Juventus Statistics
| 2.00 | Goals per game | 1.50 |
| 1.79 | Expected goals per game | 1.30 |
| 1.13 | Goals allowed per game | 0.63 |
| 0.86 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.14 |
| 53.0% | Possession % | 49.0% |
| 25.0% | Clean Sheet % | 50.0% |
| 18.38 | Shots per game | 14.50 |
Stats in table from 2022-23 Serie A play.
The other bet that caught my eye is under 10 total corners and under 4 cards, with +500 odds. Over their last five head-to-head matches, they have hit the under on 10.5 corners 80% of the time. In addition, they have received under 4.5 total cards in 83.33% of their last six meetings. This is a high-return, quarter-to-half unit play which will add value to your Saturday card.
#MilanJuve: a soundtrack that never gets old 🎼
Atmosfera carica, ritmo che cresce, bpm che aumentano… 🔊 #SempreMilan pic.twitter.com/33cDU7kG6j
— AC Milan (@acmilan) October 6, 2022
AC Milan vs Juventus Projected Lineups and Injuries
AC Milan Projected Lineup: Tatarusanu, Ballo-Toure, Tomori, Kalulu, Dest, Tonali, Bennacer, De Ketelaere, Leao, Giroud, Krunic
Major Injuries & Absences: Florenzi, Ibrahimovic, Saelemaekers, Calabria, Kjaer, Maignan
Juventus Projected Lineup: Szczesny, Sandro, Bremer, Danilo, Cuadrado, Locatelli, McKennie, Rabiot, Kostic, Vlahovic, Milic
Major Injuries & Absences: Pogba, Chiesa, Di Maria, Jorge, De Sciglio
AC Milan vs Juventus Prediction
Finally, it is time to analyze who we think the favorite actually is in AC Milan vs Juventus.
For one, I do not think there is a way for Juventus to leave on Saturday with more than a consolation goal. I know, its rough and honest. But, that statement is an honest truth about the current state of this Juventus side.
On the defensive end, The Old Lady is solid and organized. But, PSG and Benfica are great examples of how top forwards can pick them out. Olivier Giroud and Rafael Leao will surely try to do the same on Saturday.
Rafael Leao in Serie A this season:
– 4 goals
– 4 Assists
– A goal/assist every 70 mins
– 2.1 key passes per game
– 3 Big chances created.Top talent 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/4w2T1TWiT1
— CYW (@ChelseaYW_) October 1, 2022
In attack, Juventus are just an extremely one-dimensional and predictable side. Dusan Vlahovic is a great finisher, but the creative ability of those around him is lacking to say the least. Seriously, Juventus have mustered 1.1 expected goals or less in four out of their last seven matches.
To make matters worse, they will be facing a top center-half in Fikayo Tomori. The English defender is in at least the top 80th percentile across European central defenders in pressures, tackles and blocks per ninety minutes.
In January 2021, Fikayo Tomori played 10 minutes against Morecambe in his last game for Chelsea.
Now he returns to Stamford Bridge as a Serie A champion. 💪 pic.twitter.com/51YXo8Ny9f
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 5, 2022
For those reasons, my favorite play on the table is the AC Milan moneyline with odds of +107.
Pick: AC Milan ML (+107)
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
