Are Eintracht Frankfurt Still the Best Bet For a Top 4 Bundesliga Finish?

• Eintracht lead the way
• Five-way battle for Champions League spot
• Value with Hoffenheim

While there is a titanic battle developing at the top of the German Bundesliga between the two giants – Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund – an intriguing battle is also developing just below them for the one remaining Champions League place.

2019 Bundesliga – Top 4 Finish Odds

Odds taken May 2, 2019.

Five-Way Battle for Fourth

With just three games to go, RB Leipzig – on 64 points – have third spot sewn up but the battle for fourth has developed into a five-way battle that looks almost certain to go to the final game of the season. The contenders are Eintracht Frankfurt (54 points), Borussia Monchengladbach (51), Bayer 04 Leverkusen (51), 1899 Hoffenheim (50) and VfL Wolfsburg (49).

https://twitter.com/Jaynarkliner/status/1123944918764990466

While Eintracht Frankfurt are current favorites to clinch fourth by virtue of being there currently, their odds of -110 don’t necessarily reflect a dip in form that has come at just the wrong time.

Two draws – against Hertha Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg – were preceded by a home defeat at the hands of FC Augsburg, and so with no wins in three they have made life difficult for themselves.

Europa League Distraction

Eintracht also have the added distraction of a two-legged Europa League semifinal to contend with, which has undoubtedly impacted on their league form, and so there really is little value in the -110, especially when you consider they have away games at Leverkusen and Bayern Munich still to come.

What has helped Eintracht retain fourth place, at least for now, is the form of their closest challengers Borussia Mönchengladbach, who themselves have won only once in their last five games.

While they are still very much in the mix, they don’t have momentum and have a tricky looking run-in that includes games against Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund.

Sem repertório, Borussia Mönchengladbach sucumbe diante do frágil Stuttgart https://t.co/RtE9Rh4h7Z pic.twitter.com/zWnQUk8LfJ

— Gladbach Brasil (@GladbachBR) April 27, 2019

At +800 Mönchengladbach are realistically priced and do offer a decent return but their poor run of form has hit them hard and it’s difficult to see them grabbing fourth spot.

Momentum is Everything

Level on points with Mönchengladbach, are Bayer 04 Leverkusen, but in terms of momentum their’s is a very different story. Three wins in their last three have put them in a great position to challenge for that fourth Champions League place and their 4-1 win at Augsburg at the weekend offered them a timely boost ahead of the run-in.

⚽️⚽️⚽️⚽️ goals vs. FC Augsburg from the weekend! pic.twitter.com/MxsgliR4aW

— Bayer 04 Leverkusen (@bayer04_en) May 1, 2019

This weekend’s home game with Eintracht Frankfurt has now become massive and offers them the chance to go level on points with The Eagles, and winnable games to follow against Hertha Berlin and Schalke 04 are why the +250 on offer is not especially generous.

Weekend Defeat Hits Hard

Another team that had momentum and form on their side was 1899 Hoffenheim, but after four consecutive wins, their chances of fourth hit the buffers at the weekend following a 4-1 home defeat at the hands of VfL Wolfsburg.

They still shouldn’t be discounted though and if they can put last weekend’s defeat behind them and get back on the horse they have a great shot at fourth.

Eintracht currently holds fourth, their dip in form has really hindered their chances

Hoffenheim have Mönchengladbach to play away at the weekend but if they can come through it unscathed, games against Werder Bremen and Mainz offer them genuine hope of Champions League football next season.

🎙️ | @KassimAdams24

"We were very good in the first 20 minutes, but after the missed penalty, Wolfsburg took over. We won't give up, though. We have three more massive games coming up and can still reach our goal."#TSGWOB pic.twitter.com/FUDEbeE9AP

— TSG Hoffenheim EN (@tsghoffenheimEN) April 29, 2019

A Final Day Showdown

Mathematically, VfL Wolfsburg still have an outside chance of sneaking into fourth. Yet they’re currently five points behind Eintracht and with just three games to go, it’s very much a long shot. An easy looking run-in will offer them hope but only a small sliver and they’re +2500 for a reason.

So, while Eintracht currently holds fourth, their dip in form has really hindered their chances and -110 offers no value whatsoever.

We feel it could boil down to a two-way battle between the two form sides – Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1899 Hoffenheim – and with momentum being everything at this stage of the season, if Hoffenheim can get past their shock defeat at the weekend we can see them pinching it.

Our pick: 1899 Hoffenheim (+550)