MLS Decision Day Odds & Picks – Everything You Need to Know On the Final Day of MLS Regular Season

• It’s MLS Decision Day, the final weekend (day) of the regular season on Sunday, November 7, 2021
• Who’s in, who’s out, playoff implications, seedings races, the Golden Boot and more on the line Sunday
• Read on for the odds and our best bets from MLS Decision Day

The final weekend of the MLS regular season takes place this Sunday, November 7, affectionally known as Decision Day. There’s tons on the line with every team, except the Houston Dynamo in action across 13 matches. All Eastern Conference matches kick-off at 3:30 pm EST, while the West kicks off at 6:00 pm EST.

Before we get to the best bets, it’s important to give a quick rundown of what’s on the line on Decision Day. Most importantly, the playoff picture sees three teams still alive in the East battling to get into the playoffs. Those include Montreal, DC and Columbus. None of the teams ranked fifth-seventh, Atlanta, Orlando or the New York Red Bulls are assured of playoff participation (though Atlanta are virtual locks). A home date in Round One of the playoffs is also on the line. NYCFC holds the final spot but could be overtaken by one of Atlanta or Orlando. Philly and Nashville are tied on 53 points, leaving both in contention to finish second.

In the West, that number of teams still fighting to jump into the top seven is just two, with Real Salt Lake and LAFC on the outside and hoping to get in. The top four teams are already set in the West so home-field in Round One has been decided. However, three teams still have a chance at finishing first in the West. Seattle leads the pack with 59 points, but both SKC and Colorado sit right behind with 58 points.

The Golden Boot is also still up for grabs. NYCFC’s Valentin Castellanos leads the pack with 18 goals. DC’s Ola Kamara and Seattle’s Raul Ruidiaz are just behind with 17 goals each.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from MLS Decision Day below.

MLS Decision Day Odds

Odds as of Nov 5 at DraftKings

Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction

Nashville sits second in the East. They can move up to second. Or drop to fourth on MLS Decision Day. The Red Bulls are seventh and need at least a draw to clinch.

Nashville has still yet to lose at home this season at 8-8-0. But save for a 6-3 blowout of Cincinnati, the goals have dried up. Remove that result and they’ve scored just four goals in their other seven recent matches. Betting the Under 2.5 goal total would’ve cashed in six of Nashville’s past eight. They have just one defeat in their past nine.

#RBNY wins or draws & they're in.@susannahcollins and @StephenKeel22 break down Sunday's action on Group Chat.

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 5, 2021

The Red Bulls are hot. 7-3-1 in their past 11. But their matches are all tight. The Under has cashed at a 9-2 clip during that stretch.

There’s very little to separate these teams right now. Their only ever previous meeting came this season in a 2-0 Red Bulls home win.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-155)

Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

Sporting are in the running for first overall in the West and a first round bye, while RSL is fighting for their playoff lives. Both were in action on Wednesday and both suffered heavy 3-1 defeats.

Sporting was in Austin, and despite the Verde and Black languishing at the bottom of the table, they came out strong in their final home match. Austin took a 3-0 lead before Johnny Russell pulled one back for SKC in the 65′ minute.

Real Salt Lake missed a chance to clinch a playoff spot playing at home to Portland in MLS After Dark. It was an entertaining affair where RSL put 20 attempts at the Portland goal, and Portland responding with 12 of their own. However, all three of Portland’s shots on target found the back of the net. They led 3-0 at halftime. RSL didn’t find the scoresheet until a late consolation goal, a PK from Albert Rusnak at the 88′ minute after a handball in the box.

One more match to go!

3 Audi #MLSCupPlayoff spots are up for grabs in the West on Sunday. 😤 pic.twitter.com/b8SU6f3ZiY

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 4, 2021

There was just one meeting this season between the two and that resulted in a 3-1 RSL home win. Both meetings last season were won by SKC, 2-0 and both in Salt Lake.

There’s no other way to look than goals in this one. RSL have played to the most Overs on the season at 24-9. SKC aren’t too far behind at 21-12. The home field where Sporting are 9-5-2 on the year should definitely be an advantage where they’ve scored 32 and allowed just 16. However, SKC has now allowed five goals in their past two games and have kept only one clean sheet in their past eight contests. They’ve scored in each of their past ten.

With Johnny Russell (+115 odds as an anytime scorer) in blistering form and Daniel Salloi back in the lineup (also +115 to score) SKC won’t be held off the scoresheet.

That's a goal or assist in each of Johnny Russell's last 10 MLS matches. 12 goals in 12 games in total. pic.twitter.com/SRwWOw78pv

— Cupar Arabs (@CuparArabs) November 4, 2021

Meanwhile, RSL matches are always wide-open. Seven of their past eight have gone Over 2.5. They’ve conceded seven goals in their past two and in each of their past eight, and also in 13/15. Offensively RSL has scored in 16/17. They need the win. They have to attack and that will inevitably leave their already shaky backline exposed.

The teams rank third (RSL) and sixth (SKC) in shots on target this season and I see plenty of those shots finding the back of the nets Sunday.

Pick: Both to Score & Over 2.5 (-120)

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders Prediction

This match has massive implications for both sides. Vancouver sits sixth with 48 points and needs just a draw to clinch a playoff spot. Seattle likely needs a win to ensure finishing in first in the West. Both of SKC and Colorado are just a point back and both are playing at home as favorites.

Vanni Sartini’s Whitecaps have been one of the league’s hottest teams for months now. Since losing 4-0 at home to RSL back on July 7, they’ve lost just twice. After Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with LAFC they are 10-9-2 (WDL) and are now undefeated in five.

The Sounders are slumping to the finish line at the wrong time going 0-2-3 in their past five. On Monday they drew 1-1 with the LA Galaxy. Brian Schmetzer has been dealing with several absences during this stretch though with key contributors like Raul Ruidiaz and Nico Lodeiro injured. Both of those players returned to the starting lineup on Monday though, as did Jordan Morris (off the bench) who has missed the entire season with a knee injury.

HE'S BACK! Jordan Morris makes his return to the pitch after tearing his ACL at Swansea City.@sounderatheart pic.twitter.com/sKqZc8RSbE

— Max Aquino (@maxaquinophoto) November 2, 2021

Previous meetings this season both took place in Seattle. The first meeting in June saw the teams draw 2-2, followed by a 4-1 Seattle win recently on October 9.

Both teams have scored in each of the Caps’ last six matches. Vancouver has only been held off the scoresheet once in their past nine at BC Place.

With the Caps only needing a draw that could be a good value play. But with both teams needing something from the match and Seattle’s stars back in the lineup, I see both teams finding the scoresheet.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-160)

Additional MLS Decision Day Betting Notes

Here are some quick-hitting betting notes on the rest of the card for MLS Decision Day.

Montreal vs Orlando: Neither team is safe here. Orlando can still fall out of the playoff picture. One of the teams that can take their spot is Montreal. If either team wins they clinch regardless of other outcomes. Orlando is also in with a draw. Previous meetings this season resulted in a 1-1 draw and 4-2 Montreal win. Both teams could score (-160) here for a third time.

Columbus vs Chicago: The Crew are off back-to-back wins but need a win and a lot of help to reach the playoffs one year after winning MLS Cup. They have the perfect opponent in the Chicago Fire who are 2-2-12 on the road.

It all comes down to #DecisionDay. 👀

6 teams in the East compete for 3 spots in the Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs. pic.twitter.com/gZJmn5GKba

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 4, 2021

Cincinnati vs Atlanta: Could Cincinnati go out on a high and ruin Atlanta’s chances at home-field? Sure, it’s MLS. But this is a historically bad team and franchise in FCC. They’re dead last in the league and have lost 11-straight being outscored 34-13 in that stretch. It’s an Atlanta road win or nothing here.

New England vs Miami: New England has everything wrapped up. Miami is out of the playoff picure. Probably best to pass.

NYCFC vs Philadelphia: Both can finish top two. NYC can still lose home-field. Previous meetings this year saw a 1-0 Philly win and 2-0 NYC win, both in Philadelphia. The past three overall meetings have all gone Under 2.5 (+125).

Toronto vs DC: DC United looks to be running out of steam as the season comes to a close. But they’re alive with a win. Toronto have long been eliminated from the playoff picture. But TFC is a veteran squad who have been plucky of late with three-straight draws.  They’re also 3-4-2 in their past nine. And they’ll want to avenge a 7-1 massacre they suffered to DC back in July. Last season both meetings ended 2-2. More goals (BTTS & Over 2.5 -130 odds) could be on the cards Sunday.

17 goals to his name with 6 game-winners. @MLS MVP nominee @OlaKamara heads to Toronto this weekend in the hunt for the Golden Boot. pic.twitter.com/TYIUDq1GK5

— D.C. United (@dcunited) November 2, 2021

Portland vs Austin: It’s hard to know how either team will approach this one. Both just went all-out on Wednesday night. Portland can’t move up or down in the table. Austin just gave their home fans the win they wanted and they are truly dreadful away from Q2 Stadium.

LA vs Minnesota: Each can still fall out of the playoff picture. Both previous meetings this season were in Minnesota, a 1-0 LA win and 3-0 Minnesota win. A draw is definitely enough for the Loons and could be enough for the Galaxy.

San Jose vs Dallas: Two more teams both out of the playoff picture and showing little down the stretch run of the season. Pass.