MLS Week 29 Odds & Picks: NYCFC Looking to Extend Lead Atop of East

• Playoff positioning continues in MLS Week 29 this weekend after three matches already took place in midweek
• Chicago Fire three points back in Eastern playoff chase
• Western Conference playoff hopefuls FC Dallas host East-leading NYCFC

MLS Week 29 continues this weekend with 12 matches spread over Saturday and Sunday on September 21-22. Four teams have clinched playoff positions, while two have been officially eliminated, while several others all remain in the hunt for playoff places, home-field advantage or even a first-round bye.

Let’s take a look at a few best bets from the weekend slate and provide some expert betting advice.

FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire Odds

*All odds taken 9/20/19

Expansion side FC Cincinnati will be looking to play the role of spoiler on Saturday night at 7:30 pm EST. They’ll be hosting the Chicago Fire, whose playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.

The Fire are three points below the final playoff spot in the East with 37 points, compared to the 40 points of current seventh-place side New England. They’re also tied with the Montreal Impact who have 37 points themselves.

The Impact saw their playoff hopes take a huge blow last week when they fell 1-0 at home to this exact Cincinnati side. Montreal had 17 attempts, but only managed one shot on goal against the already eliminated FCC.

Cincinnati was also in action Wednesday night at home to Atlanta. For large portions of the match Cincy actually looked like the better of the two teams, and had their chances to strike first. However, once Atlanta’s Josef Martínez extended his goal-scoring streak to 15 matches at the 59′ minute mark, the Five Stripes never looked back. Martínez would add a second just minutes later in what would end in a 2-0 Atlanta win.

The Fire looked impressive Saturday, running riot at home to FC Dallas in a 4-0 win, with all four goals coming in the first half. The Fire had two goals from CJ Sapong, along with tallies from Przemyslaw Frankowski and Nemanja Nikolic.

But that result came at home, and on the road, the Fire are a completely different animal. They are historically terrible on the road and it’s been no different in 2019. The Fire are 1W-4D-10L on the road this year with only 13 goals scored.

But if there’s an opponent to try and change that against it’s definitely FCC. Outside of a 1-0 win over Montreal, Cincy has allowed at least two goals in 10/11 games. Overall, 11/14 of their recent matches have seen at least three goals scored.

How we look heading into the weekend. ? pic.twitter.com/0G2HYWB8v7

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) September 19, 2019

It’s the second meeting of the season between these teams and it was Cincinnati which got the better of the Fire, in Chicago back on July 13. Cincinnati won 2-1, with both an early and late goal. FCC scored one minute into the game and notched the winner at the 83′ minute mark. However, Chicago held an advantage in both attempts (20-6) and shots on target (7-3).

A draw does very little for either side. FC Cincinnati look to still have some fight left and the Fire has kept only two clean sheets on the road all season.

Pick: Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals (-115)

FC Dallas vs New York City FC Odds

There are playoff positions and first-round byes on the line when FC Dallas host Eastern Conference-leading New York City FC on Sunday at 4:00 pm EST.

Dallas was blown out 4-0 to Chicago Saturday as mentioned above. On Wednesday they traveled to Seattle and did enough to claim at least a point, in a 0-0 draw. The point snapped a run of eight-straight defeats against the Sounders and now leaves them one point up on eighth-place Portland who lost at home to New York Red Bulls Wednesday.

Though Dallas’ form has been hit and miss of late, they have consistently been strong at Toyota Stadium. FCD are 9W-5D-1L at home and that lone loss came way back on May 11. On the season they’ve scored 31 goals at home, while only allowing 15. In their past two matches, they’ve totaled eight goals on their home pitch.

"I thought the boys showed a good reaction from last game."

? Hear what Luchi had to say about the team's performance in last night's draw. #DTID pic.twitter.com/2axZCUAX7W

— FC Dallas (@FCDallas) September 19, 2019

Should Philadelphia fail to get a result against the Red Bulls Sunday evening, the blue side of New York could almost assure themselves of a first-place finish in the East with a win over Dallas Sunday. NYC enter the weekend five points clear of the Union for a first-round bye.

On Saturday, they defeated San Jose 2-1 at home. It extended the Citizens’ run to seven matches undefeated, six of which have seen them take all three points. In all but one of those six wins, the team has scored at least two goals.

Seeing NYCFC on the road at odds of nearly 2-1 seems almost too good to be true. With FCD’s home form, it just might be. Though New York are one of the league’s best road teams as well, second only to LAFC.

Keep movin' forward ? #MondayMotivation pic.twitter.com/mrvo0T9q9v

— New York City FC (@NYCFC) September 16, 2019

At 6-4-4 on their travels they are tied with DC for most road points in the East. They’re also scoring just under two goals per game with 26 in 14 matches. Over 1.5 road goals for NYC would’ve cashed in eight of their past 12 games on the road. NYC are scoring plenty on their travels. But unlike at home where they’ve conceded just 15 times, away from Yankee Stadium they’ve allowed 22. It’s been eight matches running where they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet.

Having just shipped four goals last weekend, and coming off a short week after midweek action, I can’t trust FCD to win against MLS Cup contenders NYC. I will look to goals in this match, however, the “Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals” prop has yet to be released as of this writing. Keep an eye out for that or back NYC on the spread.

Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals or NYCFC +0.5 (-145)

MLS Week 29 Parlay Pick

Let’s look at a small two-team parlay between Houston vs Orlando and Sporting Kansas City vs Colorado. Both matches take place at 8:30 pm EST.

Houston Dynamo vs Orlando City Odds

Orlando City hosted New England last weekend in a match Designated Player Nani claimed was their “most important,” and saying “that was our final.”

With City outside the playoff positions and having just two matches remaining after Saturday, Nani likely wasn’t exaggerating the importance of picking up points.

"This [was] the most important game for us. That was our final."

Nani flexed his attacking prowess to equalize the score twice for Orlando City tonight, but the 3-3 draw with New England puts the team's playoff chances in a tight situation.https://t.co/84tYmBfKH8

— Julia Poe (@jpoe24601) September 15, 2019

Nani finished with two goals and an assist, having a hand in all three of Orlando’s goals. Unfortunately falling behind 3-1 at the half was just too much of a hole to climb out of. Yet their opponent on that day, New England, had every bit as much to play for, as the current seventh-place and final playoff side.

Orlando’s opponent this weekend, the Dynamo will have much less to play for as they’re all but officially eliminated, nine points back of seventh-place Portland in the West.

Not much has been going right for Houston, who had seen a run of seven matches without a victory, prior to a 2-0 home win over Minnesota on September 11. It was a brief success in an otherwise dismal second half of the season as the Dynamo went on the road and lost 2-1 to Vancouver on Saturday. Houston has at least scored two goals in each of their past two matches.

Historically this matchup has been relatively low-scoring. The teams drew 0-0 in Orlando in 2018, the Dynamo won 4-0 at home in 2017, it was a 0-0 draw in Orlando in 2016 and the Lions won 1-0 in Houston during the 2015 season.

It's about building a culture ?#ForeverOrange pic.twitter.com/M2ODnnvtOk

— Houston Dynamo (@HoustonDynamo) September 18, 2019

However, I struggle to not see both teams finding the back of the net this weekend. Houston has conceded in all but one of their past 14 matches overall. Orlando meanwhile, have conceded eight times in the past three matches. They’ve allowed at least one goal in seven of eight.

Sporting Kansas City vs Colorado Rapids Odds

Of the 12 matches taking place this weekend, only four of them see totals lined at 3.5 goals, versus the more standard 3.0. This is one of them.

The playoffs look to be too far out of reach for either of these sides as SKC (37 points) and Colorado (36) are both well below Dallas’ 44 points in seventh. In fact, FiveThirtyEight gives SKC and Colorado a three-percent (SKC) and negative-one-percent (COL) chance of making the playoffs.

The Rapids may have lost 3-2 in Toronto on Saturday, but it was their their fourth-straight match both finding the scoresheet and also scoring two goals.

But stranger things have happened in MLS, and for Sporting, they’ll still have three more games after Saturday to attempt to extend their season, while the Rapids will have just two.

Needless to say, a draw will do neither side any good so Peter Vermes and Robin Fraser should take an attack-minded approach Saturday night.

The Rapids may have lost 3-2 in Toronto on Saturday, but it was their fourth-straight match both finding the scoresheet and also scoring two goals. They had won each of the previous three games.

And I just want to reiterate that @ColoradoRapids were both fun as hell and good as hell this week, and probably should've gotten a point on short rest at a hot TFC team.

Robin Fraser turning into Zeman is a plot twist I did not expect but totally love.https://t.co/ZBYlJas85u

— Matthew Doyle (@MattDoyle76) September 16, 2019

Sporting Kansas City are coming off one of the most lopsided results in the league this season. On Sunday they went to LA and were routed 7-2 by Zlatan and the Galaxy. SKC scored first, but seven unanswered goals and an Ibra hat-trick later, the match ended in embarrassment. Surely Vermes will demand some sort of response this weekend at home.

The teams met earlier this season in Colorado which resulted in a 1-1 draw. Last year SKC won 1-0 at home, while the sides split the points in Colorado drawing 2-2.

MLS Week 29 Parlay Pick: Houston Dynamo vs Orlando City BTTS & SKC vs Colorado BTTS (+125)