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2019 Australian Open Men’s Semi-Finals Odds: Djokovic vs Pouille & Nadal vs Tsitsipas

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Apr 27, 2020 · 12:03 PM PDT

Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal won the Australian Open in 2009. Photo by Brett Marlow (flickr)
  • Top-seeded Novak Djokovic is seeking to be the first seven-time winner of the Australian Open
  • Rafael Nadal is looking to win his second Aussie Open title and first since 2009
  • Both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lucas Pouille are playing in their first Grand Slam semifinal

Pity Lucas Pouille. On the one hand, there’s a certain level of excitement he must be feeling as the French player reaches the semifinal stage of a Grand Slam event for the first time in his career.

On the other hand, what he will see staring across at him from the other side of the net in Thursday’s semifinal final will be six-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic. Let’s take a closer look at that matchup as well as the other AO semi-final between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rafael Nadal.

2019 Australian Open Men’s Singles Odds

Player Odds
Novak Djokovic -120
Rafael Nadal +135
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1100
Lucas Pouille +2200

Novak Djokovic vs Lucas Pouille

Pouille’s dream could quickly turn into a nightmare. Victory in Australia would give Djokovic 15 Grand Slam titles.

Novak Djokovic vs Lucas Pouille AO Semi-Final Odds

Player Moneyline Point Spread Total
Novak Djokovic -1600 -7.5 (-130) O 31 (-115)
Lucas Pouille +900 +7.5 (EVEN) U 31 (-105)

*Start Time 6pm EST 1/24
Pouille, 24, made his Grand Slam debut at the 2013 Australian Open. He’s currently No. 31 in the ATP world rankings, peaking as high as No. 10 in the world last year. He came into the Aussie Open as the 28th-seeded player, so he’s done well for himself, beating Canada’s Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals. He’d never defeated Raonic in four previous attempts.

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In 2016, Pouille ventured into the final eight of competition at a Grand Slam event for the first time when he reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, beating Rafael Nadal in the fourth round of the US Open that year. He’s never faced Djokovic before in a match.

Last November, Pouille hired former world No. 1 player and 2006 Australian Open women’s singles champion Amelie Mauresmo as his coach. Prior to this year, he’d lost five straight first-round matches in the Australian Open.

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Djokovic has blown through the tournament this year, dropping just two sets along the way and he is the -120 chalk to win the event. Pouille is given the longest odds of the four semifinalists at +2200.

Djokovic wasn’t really tested in his quarterfinal, leading Kei Nishikori 6-1, 4-1 when a right thigh injury forced the Japanese player to retire from the match.

Here’s some more bad news for Pouille – Djokovic has never lost an Australian Open once he’s reached the semi-final stage. He’s 6-0 in semi-finals. With six titles, he shares the tournament’s all-time lead with Roger Federer and Roy Emerson.

Pick: Djokovic (-1600), under 31 (-105)

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Rafael Nadal

Tsitsipas became the darling of the tournament when he knocked off defending champion Roger Federer to reach the quarterfinals.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Rafael Nadal AO Semi-Final Odds

Player Moneyline Point Spread Total
Stefanos Tsitsipas +450 +6.0 (+110) O 35 (-115)
Rafael Nadal -650 -6.0 (-140) U 35 (-105)

*Start Time 3:35am EST 1/24
Tsitsipas toppled Spain’s Roberto Bautista Agut 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 to reach the semifinals.

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The No. 15 player in the world has lost both of his career matches against No. 2 Nadal. He’ll seek to become the sixth player to beat Federer and Nadal in the same tournament and the first to do it at a Grand Slam event since Djokovic in the 2011 US Open.

Tsitsipas will seek to become the sixth player to beat Federer and Nadal in the same tournament and the first to do it at a Grand Slam event since Djokovic in the 2011 US Open.

Just 20, Tsitsipas is the youngest player ranked among the world’s top 20. Last year at the Rogers Cup Canadian Open, he became the youngest player to beat four of the world’s top 10 players in the same tournament before losing 6-2, 7-6(7-4) to Nadal in the final.

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In search of his 18th Grand Slam title, Nadal has proven as relentless on his march through the tournament as Djokovic. He’s yet to drop a set, going 15-0, quickly dispatching American Frances Tiafoe in his quarterfinal match 6-3, 6-4, 6-2.

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Nadal hasn’t lost at the semi-final stage in Australia since 2008, winning his lone title there in 2009. He’s gone 0-3 in Australian Open finals since, losing in 2012, 2014 and 2017, the 2012 setback handed him by Djokovic.

Is there cause for concern, though? Tape was spotted on Nadal’s abdomen following his win over Tiafoe, in the same area of discomfort that led to his withdrawal from last year’s tournament. He also withdrew from the 2018 Paris Masters and this year’s Brisbane Open due to injury.

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Oddsmakers list Nadal as the +135 second betting choice to win the tournament, with Tsitsipas third at +1100. But if Nadal is ailing, an intriguing prop bet is the +450 odds on a Djokovic-Tsitsipas final.

Pick: Tsitsipas (+450), over 35 (-115)

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