ATP Rolex Paris Masters Odds & Preview: Novak Djokovic Is Back and Favored

• World No. 1 Novak Djokovic returns at the Paris Masters, his first tournament since the US Open final
• World No. 2 Daniil Medvedev also returns – which means Vienna champ Zverev is bumped down the charts

• Read on for a breakdown of the final Masters 1000 of the season, upset picks and predictions

After Novak Djokovic’s crushing defeat in the US Open final, which thwarted his rare quest to complete the calendar Grand Slam by winning all four majors, he might well have shut it down.

But there’s a lot still to play for: the ATP Tour finals, the Davis Cup Finals, the year-end No. 1 ranking – and a final Masters 1000 event for 2021 in Paris this week.

He is the strong favorite, as usual.

Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev – also as usual – find themselves right behind him.

ATP Rolex Paris Masters Singles Odds

Odds as of Oct. 31 at Bet365

Will Djokovic Be Rusty? Perhaps

Being off the court for more than six weeks late in the season is unusual for Djokovic. So it’s entirely likely he will have to work himself into the draw. And he’s in a tough section.

He’ll play doubles with countryman Filip Krajinovic Monday to ease back into it.

Typically, the No. 1 would head to Asia in between and play at least Shanghai, but sometimes also a second event (Beijing or Tokyo).

This year, Djokovic skipped the one-off October edition of the BNP Paribas Open, taking a breather after the US Open defeat.

This is his 15th appearance at the tournament. The only times he missed it were in 2017, when he was dealing with his elbow issue and in 2020, under pretty specific circumstances.

It was more valuable for Djokovic in his quest to finish the year-end No. 1 to play Vienna last year and add points. He could stockpile 1,000 points from winning the 2019 Paris Masters for another year; playing it in 2020 and wearing himself out before the ATP Tour Finals was of no benefit – even if he won it.

But Djokovic is a five-time winner. He also made the final in 2018. He knows what to do.

Surprise Winners and Finalists

Because of the tournament’s scheduling, one-off winners and finalists haven’t been a shock.

No. 16 seed Jack Sock won it in 2017. Finalists in recent years have included Denis Shapovalov (not playing this year), Krajinovic and John Isner.

Will there be another surprise? In this pandemic year, nothing is surprising anymore.

ATP Rolex Paris Masters Previous Winners and Finalists

First-round Matches to Watch

Lorenzo Sonego vs Taylor Fritz

We already know the Italian Sonego is effective on a hard court. He reached the Vienna final last fall.

And Taylor Fritz comes into Paris with very little turnaround time after a hard-fought loss to Marin Cilic in the St. Petersburg final.

That came on the heels of a disappointing loss in the semis of his “hometown” event at Indian Wells a few weeks prior.

So even though he’s the favorite (-165), he may well have trouble revving it back up again against a quality opponent.

Meanwhile, some tasty 1st rounds to look forward to 👀

🇭🇺 Fucsovics v Fognini 🇮🇹
🇰🇿 Bublik v Evans 🇬🇧
🇪🇸 Alcaraz v Herbert 🇫🇷
🇫🇷 Gasquet v Dimitrov 🇧🇬
🇺🇸 Korda v Karatsev 🇷🇺

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 30, 2021

Alexander Bublik vs Dan Evans

Bublik is a quirky character – a talented player who admits he plays for money as much as anything.

As such, he’s especially dangerous at the biggest tournaments, where there’s the most prize money.

Evans is the favorite in this one. But they’ve played four times – all of them on hard courts.

At the “smaller” tournament in Adelaide, Evans won. At the bigger tournaments – the Davis Cup Finals, Miami Open qualifying, and in the first round of the Canadian Masters 1000 this past summer, Bublik went 3-for-3 with the loss of just one total set.

A good upset pick.

Best Bet: Novak Djokovic (+140)

Longer shot: Karen Khachanov (+5000)