French Open Men’s Singles Round of 16 Odds & Picks (May 29)
- The top half of the French Open men’s draw looks for quarterfinal spots Sunday in Paris
- The top favorite with the “closest” odds is 13-time champion Rafael Nadal
- Can all three favorites make it to the final eight? We explore the French Open Men’s Round of 16 odds
Crunch time in the top half of the men’s French Open singles draw is coming.
And the results on Sunday will determine whether there will be a blockbuster quarterfinal match between No. 1 Novak Djokovic and 13-time champion Rafael Nadal.
French Open Men’s Round of 16 Odds
| Matchups | Odds |
|---|---|
| [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs [15] Diego Schwartzman (ARG) | -1400/+700 |
| [3] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs [Q] Bernabe Zapata Miralles (ESP) | -1600/+800 |
| [9] Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) vs [5] Rafael Nadal (ESP) | +450/-700 |
| [21] Karen Khachanov (RUS) vs [6] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | +600/-1000 |
Odds as of May 28 at Caesars Sportsbook
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The other expected quarterfinal would be between No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev and No. 6, teenaged phenom Carlos Alcaraz.
Can anyone stop the inevitable? The odds say no.
With that in mind, it’s still early enough to select a parlay with the four favorites. But it’s a testament to their superiority that picking and hitting on all four to win will pay out a rather modest -250.
(For analysis of the Félix Auger-Aliassime vs. Rafael Nadal match, click here).
Djokovic vs Schwartzman Prediction
Djokovic has won all six of the matches he’s played against Schwartzman – including all three on red clay.
Djokovic vs Schwartzman on clay?
Somebody call @SpiderMan 🕸 🕷@DjokerNole @dieschwartzman #RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/hbOiIZL8s2
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 27, 2022
But five years ago, Schwartzman pushed Djokovic to five sets, in the third round in Paris. That was during the period when Djokovic was just coming back from a surgery on an elbow that had been troubling him for a year, through the 2016 season.
Djokovic vs Schwartzman Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Nitto ATP Finals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2020 | Rome Masters (F) | Outdoor Clay | 7-5, 6-3 | Djokovic |
| 2020 | Australian Open (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2019 | Rome Masters (SF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-7 (2), 6-3 | Djokovic |
| 2017 | French Open (R32) | Outdoor Clay | 5-7, 6-3, 3-6, 6-1, 6-1 | Djokovic |
| 2014 | US Open (R128) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 | Djokovic |
The way Djokovic is playing right now – rounding into form at precisely the right time after a late start to the season, you wouldn’t expect him to be troubled – as he has not been, most every time they’ve played.
Pick: Djokovic in Three Sets (-157)
Zverev vs Zapata Miralles Prediction
The qualifier Zapata Miralles has done well to get to the second week, with wins over three Americans: wild card Michael Mmoh in three sets, No. 13 seed Taylor Fritz in four sets, and No. 23 seed John Isner in five sets.
The No. 8 seed in the qualifying dropped just one set in three matches to make the main draw.
This is a different level. And as Zapata Miralles – at 25 – could scarcely get over his win over Isner, he may struggle to get jacked up for another battle.
A day he’ll never forget 🥹
Qualifier Bernabe Zapata Miralles shocks No.23 seed John Isner 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-3 to reach first Slam final 16#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/EqCnUyKnKo
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) May 27, 2022
Given Zverev’s on-and-off form (and perhaps a peek ahead at a potential meeting with Alcaraz), this is the likeliest of the four matches to end in an upset.
But that’s only a small chance. At best, give the Spaniard a shot at a set.
Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (+155)
Khachanov vs Alcaraz Prediction
There was little in Karen Khachanov’s 2022 season that would make you think he’d make a run in Paris.
Just 15-13 going in, he had beaten just one top-100 player during the clay-court season (Pablo Carreño Busta in Rome).
That he is in the second week is testament to a friendly draw (qualifier Nuno Borges, Bolivia’s Hugo Dellien and No. 10 seed Cameron Norrie, who’s better on other surfaces).
Still, it’s a nice career bump right when he needed one – although so far he’s done no more than defend his round-of-16 points from a year ago.
Khachanov will be motivated by the fact that he cannot defend his quarterfinal result at Wimbledon next month, as the Russian and Belarussian players are banned from competing. He needs all the points he can get.
But it likely won’t be enough.
Meanwhile, Alcaraz bounced back extremely well from his near-disaster in the second round against countryman Albert Ramos-Viñolas.
Friday night, the 19-year-old put a beatdown on another young player of whom much is expected, American Sebastian Korda.
It was quick – 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. And the Spaniard’s youthful energy will surely allow him to be pretty much replenished by the time he faces Khachanov Sunday night.
It’s often a champion’s way to have that one near-miss on the way to the business of a tournament. Alcaraz is unlikely to have a second. Still, Khachanov could pick off a set.
Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (+130)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
