Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal Odds & Prediction – Australian Open Semifinals
- Berrettini has a 10-year age advantage over Rafael Nadal, his opponent in Friday’s Australian Open semifinal
- Nadal won their only meeting at the 2019 US Open, but Berrettini is at a different level now
- Nadal remains the favorite, on his illustrious resumé. We break down this upset in the making
As much as it would be a hugely popular win if Rafael Nadal could pull off the 2022 Australian Open, it’s also a sentimental pick.
At 35, at the Grand Slam tournament he’s been the least successful at, with the heat and humidity offering a cumulative challenge to him to recover, it will be a tough slog.
Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [7] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) | +3.5 (-120) | +150 | O 38.5 (-120) |
| [6] Rafael Nadal (ESP) | -3.5 (-110) | -187 | U 38.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Jan. 27 at Caesars Sportsbook
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Berrettini Younger, Fresher and Ready
Only Daniil Medvedev has come back from a two-sets-to-none deficit and prevailed this year (against Félix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals).
But No. 7 seed Matteo Berrettinin has survived two five-setters in which he won the first two sets only to have his opponent make a comeback and push it to a decider.
ESCAPE FROM ALCARAZ 🔓
Matteo Berrettini survives against Alcaraz in Melbourne 6-2 7-6 4-6 2-6 7-6 to book his place in the last 16 of the #AusOpen pic.twitter.com/4Msk4H4dUr
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) January 21, 2022
The first was against 18-year-old rising star Carlos Alcaraz, who was down and out … until he wasn’t.
The second was against a player nearly twice Alcaraz’s age: 35-year-old Gaël Monfils of France.
Both times, Berrettini prevailed. So you know has to be in top condition.
The Italian has had just one “routine” straight-sets win in his first five rounds. And even that one was three tight sets against the experienced No. 19 seed, Pablo Carreño Busta.
So he has logged a lot of miles on the tennis court. And yet, he still appears as though he has plenty left.
Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal Head-to-Head
| 25 (April 12, 1996) | Age | 35 (June 3, 1986) |
| Rome, Italy | Birthplace | Manacor, Mallorca |
| 6-5 | Height | 6-1 |
| 5 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 89 |
| 0 | Career Grand Slam Singles Titles | 20 |
| No. 7 (Sept. 13, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 1 (Aug. 18, 2008) |
| No. 7 | Current Ranking | No. 5 |
| $8,586,516 | Career Prize Money | $125,050,235 |
| 6-2 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 6-2 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 1 |
Nadal Escapes Shapovalov, but Not the Heat
If he weren’t such a champion, and Denis Shapovalov not still so inexperienced in the business end of Grand Slam tournaments, it likely would be the Canadian who was facing Berrettini in this semifinal.
But somehow, as he does more often than not, Nadal found a way.
As he himself said afterwards, he was absolutely “destroyed”. Ice towel around his neck, blowing the iced air from the cooler into his face.
Rafael Nadal suffered a heat stroke and lost 4kg during yesterday's match: https://t.co/g2gHX6EGRe.
— Rafael Nadal Fans (@RafaelNadalFC) January 26, 2022
According to coach Carlos Moya, Nadal suffered heat stroke. But in the end, he had enough left on the serve in the fifth set to get through.
It remains to be seen if the extra day of rest – Nadal played his match Tuesday, and the semifinal isn’t until Friday – will help at all.
He’s not the same 22-year-old Nadal who played 5h14 in the 2009 semifinal against compatriot Fernando Verdasco, and then turned around two days later and went 4h23 against Roger Federer in winning the final two days later.
Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | US Open (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (6), 6-4, 6-1 | Nadal |
Both Running on Fumes
Nadal has pulled off miracles before. But this is asking a lot of his aging body.
Berrettini will serve bombs, and Nadal will waste some energy trying to chase them down.
All in all, it’s somewhat surprising that Nadal is the favorite in this, his least-accomplished Grand Slam event.
He remains right behind Daniil Medvedev on the odds list for the four remaining players in the men’s singles draw.
But the Italian’s weaker backhand (so often a slice) goes crosscourt right into Nadal’s strength, his mighty forehand. It’s not a great diagnoal for Berrettini, who will try to prioritize the pattern from his forehand crosscourt to Nadal’s decent, but unspectacular backhand.
The Italian should be able to run around enough backhands to get the forehands he needs. And it feels as though we won’t see the old Nadal, but rather … old Nadal.
It’s been a great and unexpected run already. But it’s hard to see – beyond the fact that he’s Nadal – that it won’t end here.
Best Bet: Berrettini wins, but both players win a set (+265)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
