Jimmy Butler Props: Over/Under PPG in First Season With Heat Set at 20.5
- The Miami Heat have acquired Jimmy Butler via sign-and-trade
- The Heat have lost three of their top five scorers from last season
- Butler should score more than 20.5 points per game this season and go over for this prop
The Miami Heat attracted one of the big stars in free agency, luring Jimmy Butler away from the Philadelphia 76ers. Now the Heat have one piece of their puzzle. Oddsmakers have set his over/under for points per game average at 20.5, so is he a good bet to surpass that number or should we bet under?
2020 Jimmy Butler Points Per Game Odds
| Butler PPG in 2019-20 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 20.5 | -115 |
| Under 20.5 | -115 |
Heat Complete Trade for Butler
The Heat finished a complicated trade for Butler, which saw center Hassan Whiteside traded to the Portland Trail Blazers and Josh Richardson getting moved to the 76ers. Richardson is a quality, young player while Whiteside was a bit of an enigma. The Blazers are happy to get him but Heat fans are happy he’s gone.
That leaves a Heat lineup that will feature Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Butler, Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo with Justise Winslow and Tyler Herro off the bench. It’s fairly clear that this team is several bricks short of a load in terms of being a championship contender, but they should be a low playoff seed in the East.
How Much Will Butler Have to Carry Them?
What’s interesting is that the Heat are still looking to move Dragic. He was part of the original trade that fell through, so if he’s gone, the Heat will be counting on Butler quite a bit. Richardson led the team with 16.6 points per game last year, Dwyane Wade had 15.0, Dragic averaged 13.7 and Whiteside had 12.3. That’s four of the team’s top five scorers gone.
Butler averaged 18.2 points per game last year with Philadelphia but scored 21.3 in the ten games he played with Minnesota. The year prior, he scored 22.2. Taking a look at his history, he hasn’t been under 20.0 points per game since the 2013-14 season.
2020 Jimmy Butler Rebounding Average Odds
| Butler RPG 2019-20 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 5.5 | -130 |
| Under 5.5 | +100 |
How Many Rebounds Will Butler Average?
The second prop on the board is a rebounding average with the number set at 5.5. Butler averaged 5.3 with Philadelphia, 5.2 with Minnesota and 5.3 with Minnesota in 2017-18. On the whole, Butler has mostly been under this number in his career as he’s only been above it twice in nine seasons.
What’s the Best Bet?
At 20.5 points per game, Butler figures to be a solid bet to go over the number. The Heat lost a lot of scorers last year and only really brought in Butler. He’s going to have to do most of the work on offense.
Beyond that, he’s averaged over 20.5 points per game in each of the three seasons prior to last year, and he still was above that mark with Minnesota (not with Philly).
He seems to be in a place where he’ll be happier and the offense will run through him, so I would be surprised if he didn’t go over the points total. In terms of the rebounding, I’d lead to the under.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
