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Penn St vs Purdue Odds & Predictions for Big Ten Title Game

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in College Basketball

Updated Mar 12, 2023 · 12:00 PM PDT

Zac Edey posting up defender
Mar 11, 2023; Chicago, IL, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) is defended by Ohio State Buckeyes guard Isaac Likekele (13) during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Purdue Boilermakers are 6-point favorites vs Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament final Sunday
  • The Nittany Lions have lost both regular season meetings to Purdue this year
  • See below for the latest Penn State vs Purdue odds, plus analysis and best bets

There’s plenty of Big Ten representation expected during March Madness.

On Sunday, the Penn State Nittany Lions (22-10, 10-10 Big Ten) — not one of the eight schools in the conference on SBD’s projected March Madness bracket — can ensure their spot with a win in the Big Ten Tournament final.

The 10th seed will have their hands full with top-seeded Purdue. The Boilermakers (28-5, 155 Big Ten), currently ranked fifth in the nation, are expected to land a 2-seed in the Big Dance.

This one gets underway Sunday (March 12) at 3:30pm ET from the United Center in Chicago, IL. You can watch the game live on CBS.

Penn State vs Purdue Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Penn State Nittany Lions
 +6 (-110) +215 Ov 135.5 (-110)
Purdue Boilermakers
 -6 (-110) -255 Un 135.5 (-110)

The Boilermakers are 6-point favorites and -255 on the moneyline, giving them an implied win probability of 71.83%. The matchup also features a total of 135.5.

Penn State has had their problems with Purdue this season, losing both regular season matchups: a 76-63 loss on January 8, and an 80-60 thumping on Feb 1.

No team in the history of the Big Ten tourney has won it all seeded lower than eighth.

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Odds as of Mar 12 at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Penn State vs Purdue Betting Analysis

You can’t say Penn State isn’t battle tested for Sunday. The Nittany Lions have won three games this tournament en route to the final, winning by four points or less each game.

They beat 19th-ranked Indiana in a nail-biter of a semifinal, taking it 77-73.

Jalen Pickett was the leading scorer for PSU, dropping 28 points, with eight rebounds and four assists. Seth Lundy was the only other ‘Lion to top double digits, finishing with 16 points and six boards.

The Nittany Lions needed overtime to upend Northwestern, upsetting the 2nd-seed 67-65 in the quarterfinal. They opened the tournament with a close 79-76 win over Illinois.

PSU boasts one of the premier offenses in the NCAA, ranking 16th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. They rank 11th with a 55.9% effective field goal shooting mark, and are 11th in 3-point shooting, drilling 38.9% from distance on the 5th-most attempts in college basketball.

Penn State vs Purdue Head-to-Head

Penn State Nittany Lions
VS
Purdue Boilermakers
NR AP Rank 5
22-10 Season Record 28-5
72.4 Points per Game 73.1
68.3 Points Against per Game 62.6
55.9% Effective FG% 52.4%
49.5% Opponent Effective FG% 47.0%

It hasn’t been all smooth sailing for the Boilermakers, who played a tight one in their Big Ten tourney opener, edging Rutgers 70-65. An expected showdown with Michigan State never materialized, as Ohio State upset them.

Purdue beat up the 13th-seeded Buckeyes in Saturday’s semifinal in an 80-66 win.

Big man Zach Edey, the overwhelming favorite in the Wooden Award odds for national player of the year, dominated the Buckeyes, scoring 32 points and adding 14 rebounds. Braden Smith was an all-around star, with 15 points, five rebounds and five assists, while not missing a shot or free throw in the game.

The Boilermakers are as potent offensively as the Nittany Lions, ranking fifth in offensive efficiency at KenPom, though they’re hardly a threat from three-point range, shooting just 32.7% from distance, which ranks 266th.

Their defense is just as lethal, allowing just 62.5 points per game (21st), and holding teams to 31.1% from three-point range (40th) — a key strength vs strength on Sunday.

Edey has been the difference in this head-to-head, averaging 24 points and 13 rebounds in Purdue’s two wins .

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Penn State vs Purdue Prediction

Purdue has actually outperformed Penn State from the three-point line in both wins. They were 8-for-18 in the first game, while PSU was 8-for-22. In the second win, Purdue was +9 from beyond the arc on 14-for31 shooting (45.2%).

If you’re thinking upset, this might be the matchup. It’s hard enough to win three straight against one team, especially since Purdue is locked into March Madness regardless of outcome.

The Nittany Lions are on a great streak right now, having won five straight and eight of nine. They’re 4-1 against the spread in their last five. Purdue enters the final having won four of their last five, but they’re 0-6 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record.

It’s hard to not look at the total. Despite these teams ranking in the 300s in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, they’ve blown by this total in their two previous matchups.

The over is 6-0 in Purdue’s last six vs teams with a winning record, while PSU has seen the over go 4-0 in their last four neutral site games.

Pick:

  • OVER135.5 points (-110)
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