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2021 NFL Divisional Picks – Best Bets to Win Each Division

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Sep 8, 2021 · 6:00 AM PDT

Josh Allen holding football
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen scrambles for a gain during the first half of a preseason NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers, Saturday, Aug. 28, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)
  • The Titans, Bills, Chiefs, Packers and Washington will all try to repeat as division winners in 2021
  • The Cleveland Browns are aiming for their first division title since 1989
  • Read below for our betting predictions for each NFL Division winner

After predicting individual NFL accolades last time out, we turn our attention to some team achievements, and our picks to win each division.

Some teams have owned their respective divisions of late, like the Kansas City Chiefs, who will be looking to win their sixth straight AFC West crown. The Green Bay Packers will be looking for their third straight NFC North title, and third consecutive since Matt LaFleur stepped onto the scene. It probably helps they’ve got Aaron Rodgers, too (though that was dicey for a minute).

We have the potential for a new guard over in the AFC East, where the stacked Bills finally claimed a division title and sent Bill Belichick and the Patriots tumbling off the peak for the first time since 2009. And as we figure out who is going to suck less to take the NFC East, the NFC West looks like a murderers row. Ditto the AFC North.

Picks to Win Each NFL Division

Division Pick Odds
AFC North Cleveland Browns +155
AFC South Tennessee Titans -115
AFC East Buffalo Bills -160
AFC West Kansas City Chiefs -250
NFC North Green Bay Packers -160
NFC South Tampa Bay Buccaneers -200
NFC East Dallas Cowboys +150
NFC West Los Angeles Rams +190

Odds as of September 7

You can find all the odds for each division battle on DraftKings. And we’ll kick it off in the North, where Cleveland may rock.

AFC North

  • Last year’s winner: Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
  • Betting favorite: Baltimore Ravens

Perhaps the only truth we can glean as of right now is the Bengals will be bad. The Steelers need Ben Roethlisberger to not look 39 years old, and stretch defenses the way we’ve seen him do for 15+ years, to give rookie Najee Harris some room to run with a not-so-dominant O-line.

Their defense will still be stout, as will the Ravens’ D, to support Lamar Jackson and a rush attack that will steamroll the opposition, even if JK Dobbins is done for the year.

But this is Cleveland’s time. The Browns are, on paper, the most talented roster in this division. More than that, however, is the competence on the sideline behind reigning COY Kevin Stefanski. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt set the tone on the ground, keeping Baker Mayfield away from any needed hero-ball, save for emergency situations. Myles Garrett anchors a defense that also added Jadaveon Clowney.

The pick: Brown (1 unit to win 1.55 units)

AFC South

  • Last year’s winner: Tennessee Titans (11-5)
  • Betting favorite: Titans

Ryan Tannehill has been exceptional as the starting pivot in Nashville, and he’s been helped by 2-time rushing champ Derrick Henry. AJ Brown is the home-run hitter, and we’ll see how much they can coax out of Julio Jones. Still, the NFL Divisional odds in the South is more a lack of confidence in any resistance the rest of the division can offer.

The Colts’ big splash was to acquire Carson Wentz, but he’s missed most of camp with a foot injury, and staying healthy hasn’t exactly been his forte. The rebuild is on in Jacksonville, but even with Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence, that’s going to take some time to gel. And Houston may be the worst team in football — with QB Deshaun Watson likely to be a healthy scratch all season. Let’s move along, nothing to see here.

The pick: Titans (1 unit to win 0.87 units)

AFC East

  • Last year’s winner: Buffalo Bills (13-3)
  • Betting favorite: Bills

New England’s Mac Jones,  Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and New York’s Zach Wilson may turn out to be good, and even great quarterbacks, but Buffalo’s Josh Allen is one of the top-5 players in football, and he’s at a level that should have the Bills easily back at the top of the division.

Credit the Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott unit for putting together a roster that plays to their MVP’s prodigious arm strength and running talent (particularly in the red zone). This is a team that slipped defensively (15th in points allowed, 17th in rush yards and 13th in pass yards allowed per game) and still racked up 13 Ws. The dude is that good.

The pick: Bills (2 units to win 1.26 units)

AFC West

  • Last year’s winner: Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
  • Betting favorite: Chiefs

It doesn’t matter the Los Angeles Chargers have one of the young stud QBs in the NFL in Justin Herbert and a roster that, when healthy, could go toe-to-toe with any top squad. Or that the Denver Broncos own the third-easiest NFL strength of schedule and a potentially dominant defense with the best secondary in football.

The bottom line is this is Patrick Mahomes’ league. If he stays upright, he does damage. Consider the Chiefs had a mediocre run game all year, ranking 16th, while scoring at the sixth-best clip. They also cruised to an NFL-best 14-2 mark. The reason? Mahomes fronted the best passing attack in the league, the only team to average better than 300 yards per game.

There’s not a lot of value here, but it’s the right bet.

The pick: Chiefs (1 unit to win 0.4 units)

NFC North

  • Last year’s winner: Green Bay Packers (13-3)
  • Betting favorite: Packers

Even with the offseason drama and the not-so-ubuntu camaraderie between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ front office, Green Bay is literally knocking on the door of a Super Bowl berth. They’ve gone 26-6 over the last two regular seasons, only to come up short at the NFC Title game. This roster still has the pieces.

Rodgers’ excellence should be the difference against the improving Vikings, who will have to hope Kirk Cousins can carry them. It’s pretty barren after that, though Justin Fields’ development will have the Bears as much-watch TV, as will Dan Campbell’s intensity as the Lions stagger to a top-3 draft pick.

The pick: Packers (1 unit to win 0.63 units)

NFC South

  • Last year’s winner: New Orleans Saints (12-4)
  • Betting favorite: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Drew Brees has retired, and that leaves quite the void in the South, where the Saints would have been battling the Bucs for supremacy. While I think Jameis Winston will be better than most people think, the path for the defending champs to division glory looks pretty tame. Matt Ryan will have the Falcons in most games, and perhaps winning close games (they lost eight 1-score games) and finding success in the red zone (26th) will get them a winning record.

Carolina is in year 2 of the Matt Rhule regime, and it’s still too early to bank on Sam Darnold. In the end, it’s the ageless Tom Brady, and a championship roster that’s running it back — with a full training camp to get things going right off the bat.

The pick: Buccaneers (2 units to win 1 unit)

NFC East

  • Last year’s winner: Washington Football Team (7-9)
  • Betting favorite: Dallas Cowboys

You could literally talk me into any one of these teams winning the division. Washington won last year at 7-9, but they’ve upgraded the QB position — somewhat — with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The veteran is serviceable at worst, and world-beater at best, though you could catch that all in a half of play. The Giants have given Daniel Jones the most weapons he’s ever had at the helm, plus a healthy Saquon Barkley. In Philly, they’re seeing what they have in Jalen Hurts.

I’m leaning on Dallas here, and the belief that Dak Prescott is the best quarterback in this division, bar none. They’ve got a loaded receiving group, with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, and Zeke Elliott is still one of the league’s best runners. Washington boasts the most talented defense in the East, and they will make it tough, but the Cowboys prevail — and you’re picking the betting favorite at plus-odds, to boot.

The pick: Cowboys (1 unit to win 1.5 units)

NFC West

  • Last year’s winner: Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
  • Betting favorite: San Francisco 49ers 

What a torture rack to get through out West. I’m slightly surprised the 49ers are the betting favorite here, as Jimmy Garappolo isn’t the best quarterback in this division, and might not even be the best pivot on his team. Though I don’t think Trey Lance is ready just yet.

Russell Wilson always delivers for the Hawks — they’ve never had a losing record in any of his previous nine seasons — and he’ll have as talented a receiving duo as there is in the NFL in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

But the nod goes to the Rams, where Sean McVay can go to full, open-playbook mode now that he has an upper-tier QB in Matthew Stafford. Losing Cam Akers hurts, but this will be one of the fun teams to watch weekly.

The pick: Rams (1 unit to win 1.9 units)

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