Best Bets to Win Each NFL Player Award – NFL MVP, DPOY, OROY, DROY, and COY Picks

• Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite to win the NFL MVP Award
• Can another rookie unseat Trevor Lawrence for OROY?
• Read below for our NFL Player Award picks for the upcoming season

I can’t believe we’re finally here.

The NFL will officially kick off Thursday Night, when the reigning Super Bowl champs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, host the Dallas Cowboys. That’s the first brick laid on the path to Super Bowl 56, scheduled for February 13, 2022 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

Expect it to be a winding path, in this new, longer, 17-game regular season.

With that, let’s try and unwrap the upcoming NFL Player Award Picks, with wagers you can be confident about as you watch this season unfold.

NFL Player Award Picks

Odds as of September 6 

You can find all the odds for each award on DraftKings. We’ll begin with the primo award of the batch, with a player that should always be at the top of the list.

NFL MVP

• Last year’s winner: Aaron Rodgers
• Betting favorite: Patrick Mahomes

Simply put, a healthy Mahomes is the best player in the NFL, and oddsmakers acknowledge that in the NFL MVP odds, where he’s stayed around that +500 figure since the first odds have come out. Last year, he carried the Kansas City Chiefs to their second straight title game, before getting steamrolled by the Bucs. Mahomes was playing behind a patchwork offensive line, and running for his life was the theme of the game.

Patrick Mahomes’ sidearm is in midseason form 👀
pic.twitter.com/cFmXM4DZBE

— PFF (@PFF) August 28, 2021

This year, the Chiefs have thrown major resources into that offensive live with the goal of keeping their stud upright.  The idea is simple enough. Giving Mahomes the chance to spin spells death for the league. While the depth of his offensive weaponry is thin, it helps that he has the best home-run hitter in Tyreek Hill out wide, and the best tight end in Travis Kelce to do damage all over the formation.

Yes. Josh Allen's TD pass last week vs Green Bay was his fastest TD throw to date (54.6 MPH). Compared to his best from last season (52.9 MPH). #Bills pic.twitter.com/5xfhCDQL7M

— 7️⃣1️⃣6️⃣ TJ (@TJDMCR) August 30, 2021

There are plenty of challengers to the throne, including the reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the ageless Tom Brady. Russell Wilson may get a chance to cook all season with a new offensive coordinator, and Matthew Stafford might be unleashed as the muse for offensive guru Sean McVay. The one I’d expect to challenge, though, is Josh Allen. The Bills star had an incredible 2021 season: a career-best 69.2% completion percentage, 4,544 yards passing, 37 TD passes to just 10 interceptions, while also running for 421 yards and eight scores.

The pick: Mahomes (2 units to win 10 units) 

NFL DPOY

• Last year’s winner: Aaron Donald
• Co-betting favorite: Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett

Like Mahomes, Donald is clearly the best defensive player in football, and it’s not particularly close, though he shares the best NFL DPOY odds with Cleveland’s Myles Garrett.  Donald captured his third DPOY in the last four years with a season that fell below his gaudy 2018 numbers (20.5 sacks, 25 tackles for loss), but would be almost anyone else’s career year: a team-leading 13.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, 28 quarterback hits, four forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. He’s also doing this primarily on the inside of that Rams defensive line.

Can Aaron Donald Win His 4th Defensive Player Of The Year??? pic.twitter.com/xAsm6y4gVB

— APW Sports (@APWSports) September 5, 2021

Looking for other options? TJ Watt (+800) has wreaked havoc in his four years in Pittsburgh, posting 59 tackles for loss, 49.5 sacks and 17 forced fumbles. And if you’re looking for a real longshot for consideration, Von Miller is back, healthy, and playing in front of what looks to be the most talented secondary in the NFL. That extra half-second could help him get home to a QB running through their progressions. A flier at +3500 is worth taking.

The pick: Donald (1 unit to win 5 units) 

NFL OROY

• Last year’s winner: Justin Herbert
• Betting favorite: Trevor Lawrence

It’s true that no tight end has ever won the award, but then again, few offer the skills that Kyle Pitts brings right out of college — even though he’s yet to play any kind of snap in the NFL. We’ll stick with him here, as he’ll get a boatload of targets from legit QB Matt Ryan. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence is the overwhelming favorite in the NFL OROY odds, though his odds have continued to lengthen since his initial +200 mark in April.

The first of many TD’s for Zach Wilson. #BYUNFL pic.twitter.com/LJckWOEhJn

— The Blue Brethren (@BlueBrethren) August 21, 2021

Mac Jones has seen his stock shorten rapidly since being named the Patriots’ starter, down to +550, but the pick worth considering here has to be New York Jets hope Zach Wilson. The baby-faced BYU product has looked sharp in the preseason (albeit mostly against second-team defenses), and presents great value at +725 — all Jets jokes aside.

The pick: Pitts (1 unit to win 10 units)

NFL DROY

• Last year’s winner: Chase Young
• Betting favorite: Micah Parsons

This award has been primarily bestowed on a front-seven player. Marshon Lattimore in 2017 and Marcus Peters in 2015 are the only defensive backs to win the award since Charles Woodson in 1998. Cowboys’ LB Micah Parsons has topped the NFL DROY odds since April. Even with a great preseason, his odds have slowly lengthened from his +400 opening. The biggest mover is WFT LB Jamin Davis, who was as high as +1675, but has seen those figures shorten by more than half. This is likely due to the fact he’s playing behind an extremely talented defensive line that should allow him to get from point A to B in a hurry.

PATRICK SURTAIN PUT THE LEAGUE ON NOTICE

🔒🔒🔒

pic.twitter.com/kryG4dnK1e

— PFF College (@PFF_College) August 14, 2021

But there’s great value just a tier lower with Patrick Surtain in Denver. Perhaps he gets swallowed up in a defensive backfield loaded with talent, but he should have plenty of opportunities to make plays. If the interception bounces head his way (a big if, of course), that +1200 figure is worth a stab.

The pick: Surtain II (1 unit to win 12 units)

NFL COY

• Last year’s winner: Kevin Stefanski
• Betting favorite: Brandon Staley

If recent winners are any indication, this award goes to new HC’s that have turned a program around. Three of the last four winners — Stefanski last year with the Browns, Matt Nagy with the Bears in 2018 and McVay with the Rams in 2017 — are rookies. It makes sense then, that the NFL COY odds have Chargers’ new bench boss Brandon Staley at the top of the charts. Armed with stud 2nd-year pivot Justin Herbert to lead the offense, and a defense anchored by Joey Bosa and Derwin James, he’s got a some nice building blocks to turn things around.

best passing offense in the NFL?

Brandon Staley thinks it’ll be the Chargers pic.twitter.com/u5x9MhZyn6

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 17, 2021

It’s also no surprise that other first-year head coaches Urban Meyer in Jacksonville and Arthur Smith in Atlanta are around the top of the board. But there are some veterans that make for interesting wagers. Bruce Arians led the Bucs to their second franchise title last year, and they return almost every prominent player from that winning group. That continuity should allow TBay to battle for the NFC crown, and that should put him in the running. At +3000, it’s worth considering.

I think the other interesting one is the rebuild that Sean Payton is undertaking in New Orleans. The Saints still have a strong defense, and if he can coax good QB play out of Jameis Winston (sounds odd still, right?) perhaps he’ll get the credit for doing it without Drew Brees.

The pick: Staley (1 unit to win 10 units)