Early Money Pouring in on Ravens in Week 3 Pushes Spread from 4.5 to 7 against Browns
- After opening as narrow 4.5-point home favorites, the Baltimore Ravens have rocketed to 7-point chalk in their Week 4 clash with Cleveland
- The Ravens are coming off a 33-28 loss in Kansas City, but have won five straight on home turf
- Perched as preseason favorites to win the AFC North, the Browns have stumbled to a disappointing 1-2 start
A Week 3 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs has not dampened the appeal of the Baltimore Ravens at the sportsbooks. The Ravens have rocketed to 7-point favorites on the NFL Week 4 betting lines just hours opening as narrow 4.5-point chalk.
NFL Week 4 – Browns vs Ravens Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | +7.0 (-104) | +271 | O 47.0 (+100) |
| Baltimore Ravens | -7.0 (-116) | -335 | U 47.0 (-120) |
*Odds taken 09/24/19
Ravens on Rebound Following First Loss
The Ravens endured their first taste of adversity in Week 3, dropping a 33-28 decision in Kansas City while pegged as 4.5-point road underdogs, dropping the squad to 2-1 on the season. Baltimore opened the season on a high note, routing the Miami Dolphins 59-10, and setting a record with the largest margin of victory in team history.
Things tightened up considerably in the Ravens’ 23-17 win over the visiting Arizona Cardinals in Week 2. Baltimore squandered 11-point leads on two occasions while allowing the surprising Cardinals to make it a close game in the second half. Now faced with their first divisional matchup of the season, it remains to be seen how the Ravens will rebound from last weekend’s loss, and the steady rise in expectations that is reflected on the Browns vs Ravens odds & stats.
Baltimore a Betting Disappointment as Big Home Chalk
The Ravens have been steady performers in regular season contests on home turf, winning outright in five straight, and 11 of 14 since October 2017. However, Baltimore has remained a regular disappointment to sports bettors in contests at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens have covered just once in their past seven home dates, and have tallied consecutive wins against the spread on just one occasion during a dismal 6-12 ATS run on home turf since December 2016.
The Ravens have covered just once in their past seven home dates, and have tallied consecutive wins against the spread on just one occasion during a dismal 6-12 ATS run on home turf since December 2016.
Those trends extend to contests in which the Ravens have been pegged as home favorites by seven or more points. Baltimore has posted outright wins in five straight while favored by a touchdown or more but has covered just once in those seven outings.
Not the Same Old Browns Arrive in Baltimore
The Ravens enjoy a far more favorable track record in recent meetings with Cleveland, going 19-3 SU in their past 22 overall, including victories in 10 of 11 dates in Baltimore. But despite their early-season struggles, the Browns represent a far more formidable opponent this time around than in past seasons.
Baker Mayfield said he’ll have nightmares about this third down play because he knows he missed Jarvis Landry underneath. pic.twitter.com/vm3WFItyaX
— Everything Cleveland (@everythingcle_) September 23, 2019
The Browns are coming off a disappointing 20-13 loss to Los Angeles, in which they failed to seize on multiple opportunities to break the game wide open against a sloppy Rams squad. Baker Mayfield’s sophomore slump continued, failing to find the end zone on three occasions in which he led the Browns inside the Rams 25-yard line.
Overall, Mayfield has connected on just three touchdown passes against five picks this season, and produced a career-worst 50% completion rate in Sunday’s loss to the Rams. However, the 24-year-old has regularly produced some of his best work on the road, with 16 of his 27 scoring passes last season coming away from FirstEnergy Stadium, capped by a 376-yeard, three-TD performance in a narrow 26-24 loss in Baltimore to close out the 2018 NFL schedule.
Ravens Struggled to Contain Murray, Mahomes
That’s good news for the Browns heading into Baltimore, which has been on the receiving end of a pair of huge performances by young opposing quarterbacks. Rookie Kyler Murray kept the Cardinals in the game despite failing to find the end zone in Week 2, piling up 349 passing yards. Chiefs pivot Patrick Mahomes tossed for three scores and 374 yards against the Ravens last weekend, marking the third time in four regular-season outings that Baltimore has allowed over 300 passing yards.
Who will have a better career: Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray?
Shannon Sharpe is taking Lamar.
"He’s improved as a [passer] and he’s only going to get better. … From an organization standpoint, I trust the Ravens more than I trust the Cardinals."pic.twitter.com/60stUHjjwm
— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) September 12, 2019
The Browns also face the challenge of containing Ravens passer Lamar Jackson in what will be the second clash of Heisman Trophy-winning pivots that Baltimore has engaged in this season. Jackson demonstrated his versatility by scrambling for 120 yards against Murray and the Cardinals, and represents a real threat to a Browns rush defense that has surrendered 102 ground yards per game this season.
No Pressure on Browns
However, it is tough to judge the Browns by the roller coaster at the sportsbooks that has vaulted them from preseason favorites to win the AFC North to fast-fading underdogs in Sunday’s clash with the Ravens. With the weight of high expectations being quickly lifted off Mayfield and the Browns, a breakthrough is inevitable.
While that may not come with a SU win in Baltimore, there remains plenty of value in taking Cleveland and the points against a Ravens squad that has proven to be a steady betting disappointment on home turf.
Pick Browns +7 (-104)
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
