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Steelers Aren’t Underdogs Until Week 4 – See Odds for When Pittsburgh Records First Win and Loss of 2020 NFL Season

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Dec 20, 2022 · 9:41 AM PST

Pittsburgh Steelers
Even without Ben Roethlisberger for 14 games in 2019, the Steelers managed to go 8-8 thanks an exceptional defense. Photo by SteelCityHobbies (Wiki Commons).
  • You can wager on what week the Pittsburgh Steelers will win and lose their first game
  • Pittsburgh is favored in its first three games of the 2020 season
  • The Steelers have the ninth easiest strength of schedule based on 2020 win totals

The Pittsburgh Steelers were riddled with injuries in 2019, yet still found themselves in a playoff position heading into Week 16. Back-to-back road losses to end the season crushed their playoff dreams, but an 8-8 record given the dismal quarterback play of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges is a testament to Mike Tomlin and his staff.

Fast forward to 2020, and with Ben Roethlisberger back at QB, Pittsburgh is expected to make noise in the AFC. The Steelers 2020 Win Total sits at 9, and you can bet on when they’ll earn their first win and suffer their first defeat.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2020 Odds

Week Opponent Spread Odds To Be First Win Odds To Be First Loss
1 at New York Giants -3 -175 +145
2 vs Denver Broncos -6 +225 +350
3 vs Houston Texans -5 +800 +425
4 at Tennessee Titans +2 +2500 +425
5 at Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 +4000 +1000
6 vs Cleveland Browns -4.5 +5000 +2500
7 at Baltimore Ravens +7 +10000 +2000
9 at Dallas Cowboys +3 +10000 +8000
10 vs Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 +8000 +30000
11 at Jacksonville Jaguars +6 +25000 +25000
12 vs Baltimore Ravens PICK +50000 +25000
13 vs Washington Redskins -10 +50000 +100000
14 at Buffalo Bills +2.5 +100000 +50000
15 at Cincinnati Bengals -4 +100000 +125000
16 vs Indianapolis Colts -2.5 +200000 +200000
17 at Cleveland Browns +1 +200000 +250000
To Go 16-0 +150000 – – –

Odds as of May 29th

Pittsburgh has the ninth easiest 2020 NFL Strength of Schedule and open the season on Monday Night Football as 3-point favorites at the New York Giants. They aren’t underdogs until they travel to Tennessee in Week 4, but they’re just as likely to suffer their first loss of the season at home in Week 3 according to oddsmakers.

Pittsburgh’s D Will be a Giant Problem for New York

When it comes to the Steelers’ first win of the season, fans won’t be waiting long. They boasted the third best defense by DVOA in 2019, and all the key pieces will return. They had the highest graded pass rush and the fifth best coverage unit according to Pro Football Focus, and forced a league-high 38 turnovers.

That’s bad news for Daniel Jones and the Giants. New York’s QB threw 12 picks and fumbled 12 times in his rookie season, in addition to taking 38 sacks. Jones’ completion percentage dropped from 68.9% to 50.0% under duress, and his average yard per attempt dipped from 7.0 to 5.9. Pittsburgh’s defense gave fits to even the best offensive lines last season, and despite selecting tackle Andrew Thomas fourth overall, the Giants just don’t have the talent up front to contain the Steel Curtain.

As for the Steelers offense, not only will Big Ben be back, but stars JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner should be healthy as well. JuJu missed four games with knee issues in 2019, while Conner sat out six games with shoulder and quad injuries. Both are garnering lots of attention on social media for their yoked physiques, especially Conner who’s clearly been taking his vitamins.

If you’re buying the Steelers’ hype and want action on them in Week 1, you’ll get better odds betting their first win of the season prop (-175), then taking them on the moneyline (-194).

Conversely, if you like New York on Monday Night Football, take them on the moneyline (+162), instead of betting Pittsburgh’s first loss of the season prop (+145).

The Eagles are a Sneaky Value to be Steelers’ First Loss

The Steelers may be underdogs in Week 4, but there’s an argument to be made their first loss won’t come until Week 5 at Philadelphia.

As mentioned above, their Week 1 matchup versus the Giants is favorable, as is their Week 2 contest against Denver. Pittsburgh will catch an inexperienced Broncos squad coming East for a 1 pm start. Drew Lock struggled badly against the lone top-15 defense he faced in 2019, and he hasn’t seen anything nearly as nasty as what the Steelers will bring.

https://twitter.com/SteelersKillerB/status/1265681779853275136

Week 3 is another home date against a Houston Texans team that didn’t add any significant pieces to a defense that allowed the fifth most yards in 2019 and had the 28th-ranked coverage grade. Big Ben will have a field day.

Travelling to Tennessee in Week 4 may seem daunting, but Pittsburgh matches up well with Derrick Henry and company. The Steelers had the second highest graded run defense in 2019 and will force Ryan Tannehill to beat them. The Titans defense was exposed by KC in the AFC Championship game, and although Pittsburgh won’t be as explosive as the Chiefs, they’ll still be able to put up points.

https://twitter.com/ATBPGH/status/1227295671298002945

Which brings us to Week 5 at the Eagles. Winning back-to-back road games is incredibly difficult, and Philly has the highest projected win total of any of the Steelers’ first five opponents. They addressed their biggest weakness this offseason signing corners Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman, and Carson Wentz should have a healthy cast of receiving options.

The Eagles made the playoffs last year, despite a horrendous secondary and a wide receiver corps that was led by former AAF wideout Greg Ward down the stretch. The odds are twice as long that Pittsburgh suffers their first loss in Week 5 as opposed to Week 4, and that value is too good to pass up.

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