Patriots vs Bills Public Betting Trends – Breakdown of Money Bet Against the Spread

• The Bills are four-point home over the Patriots in an AFC wild card playoff game Saturday night
• The majority of the money is on the Bills to cover
• All the public betting trends for Patriots-Bills can be found below

The New England Patriots and Bills meet for the third time this season, this time in an AFC wild card playoff game at 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Patriots vs Bills odds see Buffalo listed as four-point favorites and the public money favors Buffalo.

Patriots vs Bills Betting Trends

All betting trends above as of Saturday, January 15.

The Bills are drawing 62% of the ATS betting handle and 60% of the bets against the spread in NFL Betting Trends. The majority of the money is also on the Bills to win as -220 favorites on the moneyline. The total is set at a modest 44, largely due to the weather report calling for extreme cold, and 66% of the money bet on the game’s total is on the under. Those looking to bet Patriots vs Bills props will need to be mindful of the weather.

New England (10-7) has lost three of its last four games while Buffalo (11-6) enters the postseason on a four-game winning streak. The AFC rivals met twice in the regular season with each team winning on the road, the Patriots 14-10 on Dec. 6 and the Bills 33-21 on Dec. 26.

Late Public Money Moving Patriots vs Bills Spread

The line opened with the Bills favored by 4.5 points, dropped to four on Friday then went back to 4.5 on Saturday. Some later money is going on the Patriots as the Bills were getting 68% of the handle and 62% of the total bets as of Friday. This is happening in spite of Damien Harris appearing to be truly questionable on the Patriots vs Bills injury report.

The Bills beat the New York Jets 27-10 at home last weekend behind a dominant defensive effort. Buffalo set a franchise record by allowing just four first downs while also holding the Jets to 53 total yards in clinching their second straight division title.

Don't sleep on this defense. 😤#GoBills | #BillsMafia

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 13, 2022

The Patriots, meanwhile, lost to the Dolphins 33-24 in Miami despite getting two touchdowns from Brandon Bolden.

The Bills have covered in three of their four games during their winning streak. The Patriots are 1-3 ATS in their last four games.

Sharps Like the Under in Patriots vs Bills

The total has gone up slightly to 44 points after opening at 43.5.

This is a bit of a surprise since it is expected to be a frigid night in Western New York. A low temperature of 1 degree is forecast with wind chills as low as minus-10 with winds from the northeast at 7 mph.

Fur hats will likely be the rage in Orchard Park.

🚨 ROLL CALL 🚨

Tell us where you're representing #BillsMafia from tonight!@MillerLite | #NEvsBUF pic.twitter.com/n9TBqFiCRc

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 15, 2022

However, there are indications the sharps are paying attention to the weather charts and hitting the under. While 58% of the bets are on the under, it is getting 66% of the handle. Public money is also going on the under as the breakdowns were 46% of the bets and 57% handle on Friday.

In the first meeting in Buffalo, wet and windy condition caused the Patriots to throw just three times. The unconventional strategy worked as they won in a game in which just 24 points were scored.

Moneyline Moving Slightly in Favor of Patriots

After opening at -225, the Bills are now -220 on the moneyline. The slight drop has occurred even though 65% of the handle and 63% of the bets are going Buffalo’s way.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have gone from an opening number of +188 to +180. The public seems to be discounting a bit that New England has proven it can win in Buffalo this season and is 31-17 all-time at Highmark Stadium.

Gotta go make it happen.#NEvsBUF | Tonight at 8:15 PM on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/AlK2VDcKmT

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 15, 2022

The ML gives the Bills a 68.75% implied probability of beating the Patriots this time in Buffalo, though.