Benfica vs PSG Odds & Picks – Champions League Matchday 3
- Benfica hosts PSG in the Champions League group stage on Wednesday, October 5th at 3:00 pm ET
- The hosts have a 3-1-2 record versus PSG, with their last head-to-head contest finishing in a 2-1 victory over the Parisians
- Get the Benfica vs PSG picks and betting prediction, below
The Champions League is rolling this week as Benfica vs PSG highlights Wednesday’s 3:00 pm slate. Both of these sides are currently unbeaten across all competitions, with respective 13-1-0 and 11-1-0 records. With six points a piece in the Champions League, either Benfica or PSG could walk out of Wednesday’s contest with a clear advantage in Group H.
Now, in reality, Liga NOS and Ligue 1 have relatively similar difficulty. In turn, we can judge their domestic performances as equal. However, PSG have a clear and obvious superiority when it comes to their on-field talent and are among the favorites in the Champions League odds. The Parisians usually run through the group stages, having only lost one in their last 11.
Nonetheless, they face a Benfica squad on Wednesday that is extremely tidy in their organization. The Eagles have only conceded once in their last five games, and it took a wonderful Juventus set-piece goal to do so. Their front four of David Neres, Rafa Silva, Joao Mario and Goncalo Ramos is also probably the best offensive line PSG have faced all season.
Benfica vs PSG Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Benfica | +325 |
| PSG | -135 |
| Draw | +320 |
Odds as of October 4th from Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this Champions League match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.
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In turn, PSG are the moneyline favorites, but not by a landslide, with odds of -135. Benfica boasts moneyline odds of +325, which obviously offers tons of value in its own right.
In truth, the odds should be closer given that Benfica does have the second-best odds to qualify from Group H (-1000). Their performance to date has been superb, and let’s not forget their victory list from last year, which includes: Spartak Moscow, PSV, Barcelona, Dinamo Kyiv and Ajax. Roger Schmidt’s side held their own with Liverpool too; simply put, do not underestimate them.
Over/Under Odds & Player Goal Prop
Regardless, in a different direction, the over on 2.5 total goals sits at -200. You can get +120 odds on the over on 3.5 goals, but this has only hit in one of their four combined Champions League matches. Even if you believe PSG have the outright advantage, do not expect them to run up the score on a stingy back line.
Benfica vs PSG Statistics
| 2.38 | Goals per game | 3.11 |
| 2.49 | Expected goals per game | 2.61 |
| 0.38 | Goals allowed per game | 0.56 |
| 0.69 | Expected goals allowed per game | 0.76 |
| 69.0% | Possession % | 60.0% |
| 75.0% | Clean Sheet % | 56.0% |
| 19.88 | Shots per game | 19.00 |
Stats in table from 2022-23 domestic league play.
With that being said, I do really favor Lionel Messi to score, with anytime odds of +105. Messi has scored in his last four games for club and country and just seems to be enjoying himself at the moment. Furthermore, I think it will take some tricky play to beat Benfica’s defense, led by Nicolas Otamendi. The pace of Kylian Mbappe and flair of Neymar may be too direct; a Messi curler though? I rate it.
Nobody has more group stage goals than Leo Messi in this competition 🔝#UCL pic.twitter.com/rS07dImRo2
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) October 3, 2022
Benfica vs PSG Projected Lineups and Injuries
Benfica Projected Lineup: Vlachodimos, Grimaldo, Otamendi, Silva, Bah, Fernandez, Luis, Mario, Silva, Neres, Ramos
Major Injuries & Absences: Morato, Verissimo, Victor
PSG Projected Lineup: Donnarumma, Mendes, Pereira, Marquinhos, Ramos, Hakimi, Vitinha, Ruiz, Neymar, Mbappe, Messi
Major Injuries & Absences: Kimpembe, Sanches, Veratti, Pembele
Benfica vs PSG Prediction
Honestly, I have no doubt in my mind Benfica will make a game out of this and score against PSG. Even without Darwin Nunez, they are more than capable of banging in goals. Their quartet up top oozes creativity, and they play off each other so well. I would even go as far as saying they could win the possession battle against Christophe Galtier’s side.
However, I think PSG just nips them at the end of the evening. Their counter-attack is deadly, and it just takes one lapse for them to strike. Even with some pieces missing in the midfield, PSG’s back five offers them extra cover, ensuring Benfica cannot run riot.
For me, a 2-1 victory for PSG is the most likely result, as they take their first lead in Group H.
All in all, I love the odds for PSG to win and both teams to score at +190. This is a big-value play and offers a huge payout. More importantly, it falls in line with exactly how I see this match panning out.
Pick: PSG to win & BTTS (+190)
Before making your Benfica vs PSG picks, also be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook that is offering up to a 100-percent profit boost for this week’s UCL action.
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
