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The 5 NFL Teams Most Likely to Go Over Their Win Total

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Aug 15, 2022 · 2:17 PM PDT

NFL win total over odds
Aug 13, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills (10) attempts a pass as New Orleans Saints defensive end Carl Granderson (96) defends during the first quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Washington Commanders and Seattle Seahawks are all favored to go over their win totals during the 2022 NFL season
  • These projections are based on a predictive model created by SBD editor-in-chief Matt McEwan
  • See how the model works and why these NFL teams are the best bets to go over their win totals in the following story

On the surface, wagering on the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, Houston Texans, Washington Commanders and Seattle Seahawks to go over their NFL win totals for the 2022 NFL season might not seem like the soundest of NFL betting strategies.

The Seahawks are going to be without All-Pro quarterback Russell Wilson. Washington is turning to Carson Wentz under center. Atlanta and Houston were among the worst teams in the league a year ago. And the Jets . . . well, they’re the Jets.

Still, the analytics are pointing to these teams being the ones to play on the over this season. And while there’s a certain constituency of the population that is currently denying science at every turn, reason and logic suggests that isn’t wise policy.

2022 NFL Record Predictions Based on SBD Win Probability

The over-proclamation on this quintet of clubs is based upon the NFL record predictions based on the SBD Win Probability Calculation created by McEwan. It is an entirely data-based product. Opinion and guesswork don’t enter into the equation.

McEwan starts by converting the spreads on every NFL game to implied probabilities to simply win the game. He then calculates every win-loss combination for a 17-game season – did you know there are 131,072 possible outcomes? There may only be one way to win 17 games, and 17 different ways to go 16-1 (depending on which game you lose), but there are 24,310 different ways to go 8-9.

Next, going one team at a time, McEwan input their probabilities to win or lose each game of the season and he added together all win-loss combinations that result in the same number of wins. When all those calculations were complete, the probability for each team to win zero through 17 games this season was revealed.

NFL Teams Most Likely to Go Over 2022 Win Total

Team Win Total Over Probability
Atlanta Falcons 4.5 72.2%
Seattle Seahawks 5.5 69.6%
New York Jets 5.5 67.3%
Houston Texans 4.5 64.7%
Washington Commanders 7.5 62.9%
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Caesars Sportsbook is a bit more bullish on the Falcons. Their oddsmakers are pegging Atlanta with a win total of 5. The over odds are set at +125. That gives the Falcons an implied probability of going over that’s set at just 44.44%. However, a winning $10 wager on Atlanta would garner a payout of $22.50.

Falcons Could Soar Past Five Wins

Now, no one is saying go ahead and bet the Falcons to take the NFC South in the NFL Division odds. On the other hand, do bet them to be at least 5-12 on the 2022 NFL season.

It’s easy to be down on the dirty birds. Matt Ryan is gone after fashioning a Hall of Fame career at QB, winning the NFL MVP and leading the Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance. Calvin Ridley, the club’s top wideout, is suspended for betting on NFL games.

It’s not like the cupboard is bereft of talent. Don’t forget running back Corradelle Patterson. The all-purpose phenom compiled 11,066 total yards and counted 11 touchdowns. Tight end Kyle Pitts could soon be mentioned in the same sentence with guys like Gronkowski, Kelce and Kittle. Veteran Marcus Mariota will be given first chance to QB the show, but rookie Desmond Ridder is looming in the shadows.

Atlanta is showing an NFL-best 72.2% probability to go over 4.5 wins. There is a 40.2% chance Atlanta wins five or six games this season. Although the Falcons face difficult out-of-division matchups (NFC West, AFC North), they also get two games against both the Panthers and Saints and also are facing the Bears and Commanders.

Seahawks a Lock to Go Over 5.5 Wins?

Okay, so maybe not a lock, but one game into the NFL preseason, it’s looking as though Seattle has a QB they can count on in Drew Lock.

Seahawks’ head coach Pete Carroll has a way of getting the most out of players that struggled elsewhere. Lock could end up being his latest reclamation project.

Lock certainly has weapons at his disposal in receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, running back Rashaad Penny and tight end Noah Fant. Seattle doesn’t have the easiest of schedules but the Seahawks do get the Jets, Lions and Panthers.

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Jets Fueling Up for Future

Just when there seemed to be cause for optimism, the Jets lost QB Zach Wilson to knee surgery in the opening preseason game. Early prognosis is that he’ll only be out a month.

The Jets played some of the best teams in the NFL tough last season. The 2022 draft was viewed as the best of any NFL team by many draft gurus. Could the Jets finally be turning the corner? Then again, if Wilson is out long-term, all bets are off where the Jets are concerned.

Texans Should Show Improvement

The good news is the Houston Texans won’t be as bad as they were last year. However, they still grade out to be the worst team in the NFL this season.

That being said, there’s some cause for intrigue with the Texans. Davis Mills was a pleasant surprise at QB. Pep Hamilton at offensive coordinator is a brilliant and creative football mind. And all the Texans need to do to go over is win five games.

Which Commanders Are the Real Deal?

In their first season as the Washington Commanders, the former Washington Football Team will be looking to bounce back from a pratfall. From 7-9 and a division title, Washington slid to third place despite again winning seven games.

Defensive end Chase Young should come back from injury and again be dominating. Ron Rivera is an underrated head coach. The big question mark is whether they can count on Carson Wentz to deliver the goods at QB. But all they need to do is win eight games and the over hits.

 

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