Texans’ Odds to Win the AFC South Are the Worst They’ve Been All Year; Should You Pounce?

• Houston Texans have won three of the last four division crowns
• Powered by Andrew Luck, Colts now favorites to win AFC South
• Is it time to jump on Houston’s fading odds?

By all accounts, the Houston Texans had a great 2018, that included a nine-game winning streak in the regular season, a division title, and a playoff berth. In most cases, that’s setting a pretty good table for the upcoming season.

But in the most recent edition of the NFL Divisional odds, it’s clear that they stand in the shadows of an AFC South foe.

AFC South Odds

*Odds taken 19/07/19. Click the link in the table to find all NFL divisional odds.

On April 11, Houston’s average odds to win the division sat at +230, with the Colts slightly favored at +150. Since then, the two have gone in opposite directions, with the Texans fading to an average of +280, and as you see in the above table, as far away as +383.

Is it too early to be doubting Deshaun Watson? Or is it Andrew Luck’s world to own? Let’s dissect the right bet to make for the South.

Watson Shields Texans’ Deficiencies

There are big names that dot the Houston roster, and while JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney rule the defense, and DeAndre Hopkins’ catch radius is about five times wider than the average wide receiver, it’s really Deshaun Watson that makes the Texans tick.

With a full season with Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins posted a career-best 115.2 passer rating when targeted in 2018! pic.twitter.com/VelFpyADih

— PFF (@PFF) July 11, 2019

But other than adding aging Matt Kalil and taking a couple of no-name fliers in the draft, Houston did nothing to bolster their offensive line, and that could be a problem.

Last season, Watson was under siege in a way no QB has been since Jon Kitna in 2006. That’s the last time a pivot was sacked at least 60 times in a season. Watson was dropped an unfathomable 62 times. He joins the immortal Ken O’Brien as the only two pivots in the Super Bowl era to take that many sacks and make the playoffs.

Deshaun Watson +3300 MVP odds are an insult to humanitypic.twitter.com/jkzfZ0TLSE

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 16, 2019

And that makes a season where he threw for 4,165 yards and ran for an additional 551 – the first player to ever accomplish the 4,000+, 500+ double in NFL history – that much more remarkable.

"I think he's a guy that can take a team all the way to the Super Bowl."@MarkdominikNFL thinks @deshaunwatson is the best QB in the AFC South and has high expectations as he continues to grow with the #Texans. pic.twitter.com/ZZBPHL94Ko

— Stadium (@Stadium) July 10, 2019

They’re also a little weaker defensively, particularly in the secondary, as Tyrann Mathieu and Kareem Jackson were lost in free agency, replaced by lesser pieces Tashaun Gipson and Bradley Roby.

Who Should be the AFC South Pick?

It appears that Andrew Luck was still finding himself for much of last season as he returned from a serious throwing shoulder injury, and he still put up the second best statistical season of his career. Having him back at full tilt makes Indy a scary proposition.

This may seem like a boring video but man, take the time to appreciate Andrew Luck's movement in the pocket & throws on the run. His pocket awareness & manipulation is second to none. #ThatsMyQB pic.twitter.com/kmtL0aPznj

— Indy SportsOne (@IndySportsOne) July 19, 2019

The Colts also made smart and non-splashy free agency deals that rounded out their roster, grabbing guys like receiver Devin Funchess and pass rushing help in ex-Chief Justin Houston. Talent-wise, they boast one of the elite rosters in the league, featuring a wall-like line that allowed Luck to be sacked just 21 times (T-30th in the NFL).

Here’s a breakdown of how AFC South QB grades progressed throughout last season. pic.twitter.com/VhotCCVuDk

— PFF (@PFF) July 9, 2019

They’re probably the pick to make, but there’s so much more value in the Texans, and even the (gulp) Jacksonville Jaguars, who finally have what amounts to competent QB play with the addition of Nick Foles.

Maybe spread the love around on this one, just in case.

The Pick: Colts (-137)