This NFL Trend Says Chiefs, Bengals, or Eagles Will Miss Playoffs & Only These 8 Teams Can Win Super Bowl 58

• Historical NFL trends coming from my NFL power rankings points us to some pretty juicy potential outcomes for the 2023-24 NFL season
• See which eight teams are the only ones with a chance to win Super Bowl 58, according to this trend
• Read more on the likeliness of one of the Chiefs, Bengals, or Eagles, three top contenders this season, missing the NFL Playoffs

With less than two weeks to the kickoff for the 2023-24 NFL season, bettors are running out of time to bet NFL futures markets as they currently stand. Yes, NFL futures are available all season, but we will see dramatic shifts in every futures market once the season kicks off and we get our first real look at each of the 32 teams.

With that in mind, I wanted to share two of the strongest NFL trends that come from my yearly NFL power rankings. Since I do these power rankings in a formulaic way, with no subjectivity/opinion involved, we can look to past seasons and draw conclusions about the upcoming year. Let’s dive in!

Which Teams Are Good Bets to Win the Super Bowl?

A team from the top eight in the power rankings has won the Super Bowl each of the last five seasons. Here’s the specifics:

• Chiefs were ranked 6th in the power rankings last year and won Super Bowl 57
• Rams were ranked 7th two years ago and won Super Bowl 56
• Buccaneers were ranked 8th three years ago and won Super Bowl 55
• Chiefs were ranked 4th four years ago and won Super Bowl 54
• Patriots were ranked 1st five years ago and won Super Bowl 53

So, according to this NFL trend, there are only eight teams worth betting to win Super Bowl 58. Here are the top eight teams in my NFL power rankings as well as their Super Bowl odds.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (+600)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (+1100)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (+650)
4. San Francisco 49ers (+1000)
5. Buffalo Bills (+900)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000)
7. Baltimore Ravens (+1800)
8. Dallas Cowboys (+1400)

If you already have a Super Bowl ticket with another team’s name on it, this trend says it’s as good as garbage. The above eight teams are pretty close to the top eight contenders in the Super Bowl odds. The lone team missing is the New York Jets, who currently have the seventh-best odds to win the Super Bowl. They come in at ninth in my NFL power rankings, as the Jaguars took their spot in the top eight. Jacksonville’s odds certainly stand out above as being the longest at +3000.

To be clear, I am not suggesting you throw a unit on each of these eight teams. That would not be responsible gambling or an intelligent set of wagers. First, don’t lock up eight full units from your bankroll in Super Bowl futures, or any other futures bet for that matter. Second, if you tried to do this, you’d lose money if one of two teams wins. Your payout on the Chiefs and Eagles is going to be less than the eight units you risked to cover all teams.

Bet a Top Contender to Miss the Playoffs

At least one team from the top three in the power rankings has missed the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons. It was the Rams, the third-ranked team in the power rankings, who suffered last year. Here’s a closer look at this trend:

• 2022: the third-ranked Rams, attempting to defend their Super Bowl championship, fail to make the playoffs
• 2021: no team from the top three missed
• 2020: the third-ranked 49ers miss the playoffs one year after losing in the Super Bowl
• 2019: the third-ranked Rams miss the playoff one year after losing in the Super Bowl
• 2018: the second-ranked Steelers miss the playoffs
• 2017: the second and third-ranked Seahawks and Cowboys both miss the playoffs
• 2016: the second-ranked Panthers miss the playoffs one year after losing in the Super Bowl
• 2015: the third-ranked Colts miss the playoffs

The lone outlier is 2021 when all of Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo, the top three teams in the power rankings, made the playoffs. The Ravens, who were ranked fourth, ended up missing, though.

It seems to be pretty common that the third-ranked team is the one missing the playoffs, which doesn’t bode well for the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank third in my NFL power rankings for 2023. There also seems to be a common thread of missing the playoffs one year after losing in the Super Bowl, which, again, isn’t what Eagles fans/bettors want to see.

Here is a reminder on who the top three teams are in this year’s power rankings as well as their NFL playoff odds:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (-450 to make the playoffs / +360 to miss the playoffs)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (-255 to make / +215 to miss)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (-500 to make / +400 to miss)

It’s extremely hard to imagine any of these three teams missing the playoffs this season, but we all said the same thing seven of the last eight seasons when we watched a top contender fall flat. The reality is it’s incredibly hard to stay good in the NFL and injuries can/do strike.

These three teams are atop the power rankings in 2023 due to very successful seasons last year, which generally means they stayed healthy. While many signs point to the Eagles being the team who could miss this year, my money is on the Bengals. Joe Burrow is already going to enter the season a little banged up and the AFC North is going to be brutally tough. Every team in the division (Steelers, Browns, and Ravens) should be better than last year.