Texans Favored to Win AFC South After Week 9, Colts Given +185 Odds

• Houston Texans seized first place in the AFC South with Sunday’s win over Jacksonville
• Texans have vaulted to -130 favorites to win the division following their win over the Jags
• Colts are coping with injuries to Jacoby Brissett and TY Hilton but remaining attractive +185 second favorites in the odds to win the AFC South

The Houston Texans claimed sole possession in the AFC South standings with a decisive 26-3 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, and have been rewarded in the NFL divisional odds, where they have climbed past the Indianapolis Colts to -130 favorites.

Odds to Win AFC South

Odds taken Nov. 4

Texans Vault Past Colts in Week 9

Houston entered Week 9 lagging behind the Colts, both in the standings and the NFL futures. Sporting a 5-3 record, a half-game back of Indianapolis, the Texans traveled to London’s Wembley Stadium for this past weekend’s matchup with Jacksonville sporting a middling 5-3 record, and pegged as a +150 second-favorite to win the division.

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With quarterback Deshaun Watson putting on one of his strongest performances of the season, and the squad enjoying the benefit of multiple questionable calls, the Texans marched to their most decisive victory of the season while paying out as 1-point underdogs.

Colts Coming Off Hard Luck Loss to Pittsburgh

Conversely, the Colts failed to get the breaks in a Week 9, a 26-24 loss to Pittsburgh. With the loss, the Colts have now tumbled to +185 second favorites on the AFC South odds, well back of the +120 odds they sported going into the weekend, which also represented the shortest odds the team has sported since Andrew Luck’s sudden and unexpected retirement.

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However, all is not lost for the Colts, who can pull even with the Texans in the divisional standings when they host the Miami Dolphins next Sunday while Houston enjoys a bye week. Indianapolis has produced steady results on home turf, picking up SU wins in nine of 10 outings, and have opened as heavy 12-point favorites against the Dolphins, who earned their first win of the season with a 26-18 victory over the hapless New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.

Next Five Games Key to Colts Season

Next weekend’s matchup with the Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium kicks off a crucial stretch of five games that will likely define the Colts’ season. Four of those upcoming games come against teams with losing records, including the Dolphins, Jaguars, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay, who sport a combined 11-23 record this season. Success in those games will ease the pressure when the Colts face New Orleans and Carolina in December.

Despite leading the way in the standings, the Texans look forward to a tougher road following their bye week. Houston visits the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens in Week 11, and opens December with a Week 13 visit from the New England Patriots before closing out their schedule against Denver, Tampa Bay, and a pair of dates with the Titans.

With both these teams finding themselves in win-now mode, their Week 12 clash in Houston takes on major significance. The Colts came away with a 30-23 victory when they hosted Texans in Week 7, giving them the edge in divisional tiebreakers.

And with both these teams finding themselves in win-now mode, their Week 12 clash in Houston takes on major significance. The Colts came away with a 30-23 victory when they hosted the Texans in Week 7, giving them the edge in divisional tiebreakers, and improving them to 5-1 SU in their past six overall meetings, and 6-1 in seven visits to Houston.

Injuries to Brissett, Hilton Cause for Concern?

However, the massive concern facing the Colts is the uncertain status of quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who was forced to leave Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh with what Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich described as a knee sprain that is possibly “MCL-ish”. The loss of Brissett complicates matters for the Colts offense, which also missed TY Hilton on Sunday after the veteran receiver suffered a calf injury in practice earlier in the week.

The #Colts couldn't of asked for a better part of the schedule to miss T.Y. Hilton for 3-4 games:

vs #Steelers (No James Connor)
vs #Dolphins (Tanking)
vs #Jaguars (Potential QB drama)
vs #Texans (No JJ Watt)

Ideally, T.Y. is back for the Houston matchup.

— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 1, 2019

But if there was ever a time for the Colts to be faced with injury it is now. Brian Hoyer once again demonstrated his reliability as a backup quarterback with three touchdown passes and is well equipped to lead Indianapolis in Brissett’s absence, at least in the short term, making Indianapolis a solid value pick to rebound and reclaim the top of the AFC South standings.

Picks: Colts to win AFC South (+185)