Who’s Going to Win Pennsylvania? Biden a -275 Favorite; Trump’s Odds at +200

• Democrat challenger Joe Biden is the -275 favorite to win Pennsylvania in the 2020 US Presidential election
• Republican incumbent Donald Trump is the +200 underdog
• Read below for odds, analysis, and our best bet on who we think will win Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania carries a 20 Electoral College vote prize. Often, the outcome in the Keystone state plays a major role in determining who will live in the White House for the next four years.

The 2020 Presidential election is no different. This time around, it appears that this swing state is ready to swing back to the Democrats.

Oddsmakers are showing Democrat challenger Joe Biden as the -275 favorite to carry Pennsylvania when the election results are announced. Republican incumbent Donald Trump is a +200 underdog in this betting market.

Odds to Win Pennsylvania in 2020 Election

Odds taken Oct. 14 at Bet365

Trump captured Pennsylvania en route to winning the Presidency in 2016.

Dems The Breaks

Trump’s win in Pennsylvania four years ago brought about an end to a six-election win streak for the Democrats. He earned 48.17% of the vote (2,970,733) in 2016 to edge Democrat Hillary Clinton (47.26%, 2,926,441) by a narrow margin of  0.91 points and 44,292 votes.

The Democrats not only were the winners in the six prior Presidential votes, in most elections they posted significant victories. Pennsylvania went blue by more than a 50% margin in each election from 2000 through 2012.

"I'm running as a proud Democrat, but I'm going to govern as an American president," Joe Biden says during a campaign event in Erie, Pennsylvania. "I'm going to work as hard for those who don't support me as those who do … this is a moment to put country above party." pic.twitter.com/c2opr0z8xL

— NBC News (@NBCNews) October 10, 2020

Al Gore carried the state with 50.61% of the vote in 2000. John Kerry won 50.96% in 2004. But the biggest margins of victory since 1980 were turned in by Barack Obama.

He won with 54.65% in 2008 and 52.08% in 2012. Obama garnered a record 3,276,363 votes from Pennsylvanians during his 2008 win. He and Democrat Lyndon Johnson (3,130,954 in 1964) are the only candidates to get more than three million votes from Pennsylvania during a Presidential ballot.

Obama’s running mate for both of those terms was Biden.

Biden Polling Strongly

Biden was born in Scranton, Pa., the home of Dunder Mifflin. And Pennsylvania appears to strongly want to see him in the office of the President.

The website fivethirtyeight.com shows 31 polls taken in the state of Pennsylvania since the beginning of October. Biden is ahead in all 31 of them.

NEW from @QuinnipiacPoll

BIDEN + 11 in Florida
BIDEN + 13 in Pennsylvania
BIDEN + 5 in Iowa

Polls in the wake of the first debate have been catastrophic for Trump.

— Niall Stanage (@NiallStanage) October 7, 2020

He’s garnering at least 50% of the vote in 27 of those 31 polls. Biden is carrying a minimum of a five-point lead over Trump in 25 of the polls taken.

CNN cited an additional eight polls from Pennsylvania. All place Biden well ahead of Trump. He garnered no less than 51% support from six of them. And his lead ranges from seven to 13 points.

Battling For Soccer Moms

One of the key demographics in turning swing states away from Clinton and toward Trump in 2016 was suburban white women. Four years later, that group appears to be abandoning Trump and going over to Biden in droves.

An ABC News survey taken earlier this month showed that women in Pennsylvania preferred Biden 61 to 38%. The support for Biden among white women is 56 to 43%.

Trump pleaded with women to come back to him during a Tuesday campaign rally in Johnstown, Pa. “Can I ask you to do me a favor?” Trump said. “Suburban women, will you please like me?”

They're part of the 50% of White women in Pennsylvania who exit polls showed helped Trump flip the state in 2016.

They also represent the uphill battle Trump faces in the battleground state this year. They're the Trump supporters the President has lost. https://t.co/M6J7aS5u5Y

— CNN (@CNN) October 13, 2020

That ship appears to have set sail. The same ABC News survey determined that Biden owns a 59 to 41% advantage among suburban women.

College-educated white people are also deserting Trump in the state. Among likely voters, college-educated white people support Biden by a 61 to 38% margin. He’s showing a 63 to 35% edge among college-educated white women.

College-educated white men went 56 to 39% for Trump in 2016. This time, they are leaning 57 to 42% toward Biden.

Overall, estimates are that Trump has lost about 8% of the support he held in the state four years ago.

Pick: Joe Biden (-275)

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